2024 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions: Top 10 Candidates, Dark Horses & Historical Trends

2024 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions, The NFL MVP race represents the most prestigious individual honor in professional football, combining statistical dominance with team success and compelling narratives. As we approach the 2024 season, the MVP landscape features established superstars, ascending young quarterbacks, and a few non-QB dark horses capable of crashing the party.

In this comprehensive 2024 NFL MVP preview, we analyze:

✔ Top 10 favorites with detailed cases for each
✔ 3 shocking longshot candidates at 50-1 or higher
✔ Historical voting patterns that predict winners
✔ How schedule strength impacts MVP chances
✔ Fantasy football implications for each contender

Whether you’re a sports bettor, fantasy manager, or football analyst, understanding this MVP race provides critical insights into the 2024 season.

Top 5 MVP Favorites for 2024

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+450)

The Case For:

• Back-to-back MVP/Super Bowl winner potential

• Added Marquise Brown to address WR weakness

• Weak AFC West schedule (easiest in NFL per PFF)

Potential Pitfalls:

• Voter fatigue (no repeat winner since 2010)

• Travis Kelce’s age-related decline

 Latest Chiefs analysis: NFL Newsz

2. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+600)

Why He’s Due:

• Top-3 in MVP voting 3 of last 4 years

• Stefon Diggs departure means more Allen carries

• Career-high 4,800+ passing yards possible

Concern: 17 INTs in 2023 must improve

3. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+700)

Comeback Narrative:

• Healthy after lost 2023 season

• Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins duo intact

• Underrated rushing upside (career-high 257 yards coming)

Next Tier of Strong Contenders

4. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (+900)

New Weapons: Derrick Henry + Zay Flowers breakout
Schedule Advantage: 4th-easiest QB slate per SOS

5. C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (+1200)

Sophomore Surge Potential:

• Added Stefon Diggs to elite young core

• NFC South schedule provides stat-padding

 Texans updates: NFL Newsz

3 Longshot MVP Candidates (50-1 or Higher)

1. Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers (50-1)

Why It Could Happen:

• 18:1 TD:INT ratio final 8 games in 2023

• Easiest NFL schedule per Warren Sharp

• Media loves Packers’ “next great QB” narrative

2. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons (80-1)

Non-QB Hope:

• Kirk Cousins unlocks offense

• 2,000+ scrimmage yard ceiling

• Would need 20+ total TDs

3. Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns (100-1)

Defensive Dark Horse:

• Coming off career-high 16 sacks

• New DC Jim Schwartz maximizes pass rush

• Requires 20+ sacks + Browns top seed

Historical Voting Trends That Matter

1. QB Dominance: 10 straight QB winners (last non-QB: Adrian Peterson 2012)

2. Team Success: 15 of last 16 MVPs had top-2 seed

3. Narrative Power: 7 of last 10 winners had compelling “story” beyond stats

2024 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions: Voters will crave Mahomes three-peat storyline

Schedule Strength Analysis

Best Schedule: Jordan Love faces just 3 top-10 defenses

Fantasy Football Implications

Best MVP-Fantasy Overlaps

✅ Josh Allen (guaranteed rushing production)
✅ C.J. Stroud (stackable with Nico Collins)

Overvalued Due to MVP Hype

❌ Anthony Richardson (injury risk too high)
❌ Dak Prescott (tough early schedule)

Read More: 2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Candidates: Top 10 Contenders & Dark Horse Picks

Contract Years That Could Fuel MVP Runs

Final Prediction: Who Lifts the Trophy?

While Mahomes remains the safest bet, C.J. Stroud offers the most tantalizing blend of statistical upside and team rise narrative. His potential to lead Houston from worst-to-first in the AFC South while flirting with 5,000 yards makes him this year’s perfect MVP storm. For dark horse lovers, Jordan Love at 50-1 provides outrageous value given his schedule and late-2023 form.

 For daily NFL coverage: NFL Newsz