The NFL Comeback Player of the Year award represents one of the league’s most inspiring honors, celebrating athletes who overcome significant adversity to return to elite performance. As we approach the 2024 season, several compelling candidates emerge from career-threatening injuries, personal challenges, or dramatic performance declines.
In this definitive guide to 2024 CPOY contenders, we analyze:
✔ Top 10 favorites with detailed case breakdowns
✔ 3 shocking longshot candidates at 50-1 odds or higher
✔ Historical voting trends that predict winners
✔ Fantasy football implications for each contender
✔ How contract incentives tie into comeback narratives
Whether you’re a sports bettor, fantasy manager, or football romantic, these comeback stories will define the 2024 season.
Top 5 Favorites for 2024 CPOY
1. Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets (+250)
Comeback From: Torn Achilles (4 plays into 2023 season)
Why He’ll Win:
-
Media darling with compelling “last chance” narrative
-
Added weapons (Mike Williams, Malachi Corley)
-
Weak AFC East schedule outside Dolphins
Potential Pitfall: Age 40 recovery unknowns
Latest Jets updates: NFL Newsz
2. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+350)
Comeback From: Season-ending wrist surgery
Key Stat: 8-0 TD/INT ratio before injury in 2023
X-Factor: New TE Mike Gesicki helps safety valve
3. Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons (+500)
Comeback From: Torn Achilles (Week 8, 2023)
Perfect Storm: Elite weapons + weak NFC South
Concern: Mobility limitations post-injury
Next Tier of Strong Contenders
4. Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (+800)
Comeback From: Shoulder surgery (missed 13 games)
Upside: Best athletic tools of any candidate NFL Comeback Player
Risk: Play style invites more injuries
5. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams (+1000)
Comeback From: Hamstring/ankle nightmare season
Hope: 2021 Triple Crown form still possible at 31
More Rams analysis: NFL Newsz
3 Longshot Candidates With Real Potential
1. Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets (50-1)
Case: First full season post-ACL tear
Ceiling: Could lead NFL in scrimmage yards
2. Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (60-1)
Opportunity: Kirk Cousins loves throwing to TEs
Motivation: Playing for $15M+/year extension
3. Trey Lance, QB, Dallas Cowboys (100-1)
Narrative Gold: From 3rd-string to Dak’s replacement
Path: Prescott injury = instant CPOY candidacy
Historical Voting Trends That Matter
-
QB Bias: 9 of last 12 winners were quarterbacks
-
Team Success: 80% of winners made playoffs
-
Media Narrative: Human interest stories matter (see Alex Smith)
2024 Prediction: Voters will favor Rodgers’ age-defying comeback
Fantasy Football Implications
Best Values
✅ Anthony Richardson (ADP QB12)
✅ Cooper Kupp (ADP WR15)
Avoid Overpaying
❌ Aaron Rodgers (ADP QB10 – too risky)
❌ JK Dobbins (ADP RB45 – too many injuries)
Read More: 2024 NFL Defensive Rankings: Top 10 Defenses & Under-the-Radar Units Poised to Dominate
Contract Incentives Fueling Comebacks
| Player | Incentive | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | Pro Bowl | $2M |
| Cooper Kupp | 1,400 yards | $1.5M |
| Breece Hall | 1,000 rush yards | $750K |
Final Verdict: Who Lifts the Trophy?
While Rodgers is the Vegas favorite, Anthony Richardson offers the most compelling mix of statistical upside and inspirational comeback. His potential to go from injured rookie to Pro Bowler mirrors 2022 winner Geno Smith’s career revival. For dark horse lovers, Breece Hall at 50-1 provides sneaky value if the Jets offense clicks.
For daily NFL news: NFL Newsz
No comment