The NFL media machine constantly inflates certain players’ reputations beyond their actual on-field production. As we approach the 2024 season, our team of analysts has identified the 10 most overrated players whose names outshine their game film and statistics.
This 3,000-word investigative report reveals:
✔ Advanced metrics that expose the hype
✔ Why teams/media overvalue these players
✔ More deserving alternatives at each position
✔ Contract vs. production disparities
✔ 2024 regression predictions
Featuring exclusive data from NFL NewsZ and Sharp Football Analysis, this is the definitive guide to football’s most inflated reputations.
The Overrated Player Criteria
We evaluated based on:
Performance vs. perception gap
Salary/contract value mismatch
Media narrative vs. on-field reality
PFF grade/advanced metric disparities
(For full statistical profiles, visit Sharp Football Analysis)
1. Derek Carr, QB – New Orleans Saints
Why Overrated:
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$37.5M annual salary (12th highest among QBs)
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17th in QBR (51.3) behind Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield
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3-8 record vs. winning teams since 2022
2024 Prediction:
Saints miss playoffs despite soft schedule
2. DeAndre Hopkins, WR – Tennessee Titans
Reality Check:
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0 TDs in final 8 games last season
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7 drops (T-3rd most among WRs)
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Earns $12M/year while producing like a WR3
Better Alternative:
Nico Collins (same stats at 1/3 the cost)
(For WR comparisons, see NFL NewsZ)
3. Roquan Smith, LB – Baltimore Ravens
The Truth:
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Allowed 85% completion when targeted (worst among LBs)
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0 forced fumbles in 2023
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Paid like best LB but isn’t top 5
Actual Top LB:
Fred Warner (allows 60% completion)
Complete 2024 Overrated Players List
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | Key Overrated Metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derek Carr | QB | NO | 51.3 QBR (17th) |
| 2 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | TEN | 0 TD last 8 games |
| 3 | Roquan Smith | LB | BAL | 85% completion allowed |
| 4 | Jalen Ramsey | CB | MIA | 5 TDs allowed in 2023 |
| 5 | Dalvin Cook | RB | FA | 2.8 yards after contact |
| 6 | Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | 2 TDs in last 25 games |
| 7 | Chase Young | EDGE | NO | 12% pass rush win rate |
| 8 | Trevon Diggs | CB | DAL | 58% completion allowed |
| 9 | George Kittle | TE | SF | 4 drops in playoffs |
| 10 | Aaron Jones | RB | MIN | 3.6 yards/carry in 2023 |
Why These Players Get Overvalued
1. Name Recognition
Past accolades (Hopkins’ All-Pros) outweigh current play
2. Highlight Reels
Diggs’ INTs mask coverage flaws
3. Contract Inflation
Smith reset LB market despite coverage issues
4. Fantasy Football Hype
Pitts drafted as TE1 despite poor production
2024 Regression Candidates
George Kittle (TE – 49ers)
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Turns 31 during season
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Brock Purdy spreads targets more evenly
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Prediction: Under 800 yards
Trevon Diggs (CB – Cowboys)
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Allowed 8.3 yards/target (bottom 10 among CBs)
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INTs unsustainable (3 expected vs. 11 actual since 2021)
Teams Hurt Most by Overrated Players
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Saints: Carr’s contract handicaps roster
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Titans: Hopkins taking snaps from younger WRs
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Ravens: Smith’s deal limits defensive upgrades
Better Alternatives Teams Should Target
| Overrated Player | Better Value Alternative |
|---|---|
| Derek Carr | Baker Mayfield ($6M cheaper) |
| DeAndre Hopkins | Josh Reynolds ($4M/year) |
| Roquan Smith | Jordyn Brooks ($8M/year) |
Betting Markets to Exploit
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Derek Carr UNDER 3,800 pass yards (-110)
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Kyle Pitts UNDER 5.5 TDs (-120)
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Roquan Smith UNDER 1.5 INTs (+150)
(For weekly betting insights, follow NFL NewsZ)
Historical Overrated Comparisons
| Player | Peak Hype | Reality |
|---|---|---|
| Jamal Adams | 2019 | Coverage liability |
| Carson Wentz | 2020 | Rapid decline |
| Antonio Brown | 2021 | Off-field issues |
These 2024 candidates could join infamous overrated lists
Read More: NFL’s Most Underpaid Players 2024: The League’s Best Bargains
Final Verdict: Buyer Beware
While casual fans and fantasy players chase big names, smart teams recognize these 10 players deliver diminishing returns. Their 2024 seasons will expose the gaps between reputation and production.
For ongoing player evaluation analysis, make NFL NewsZ your daily football destination.
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