NFL’s Most Shocking Turnarounds: Worst to First Contenders in 2024

The NFL’s Most Shocking Turnarounds has always been a league of dramatic turnarounds, but the 2024 season is producing some of the most unexpected reversals of fortune in recent memory. Teams that were projected to finish at the bottom of their divisions are now leading the pack, while last year’s powerhouses struggle to find their footing. This in-depth analysis examines the three most surprising “worst to first” candidates, breaks down what’s driving their success, and predicts whether they can sustain it for a playoff push.

The Anatomy of an NFL Turnaround

Before we dive into this year’s surprise teams, let’s examine what factors typically contribute to dramatic single-season improvements:

1. Quarterback Development (Second-year jumps or veteran resurgences)

2. Coaching Changes (New schemes better utilizing existing talent)

3. Health Luck (Fewer injuries than previous season)

4. Schedule Easing (Facing weaker divisions or improved timing)

5. Free Agent/Draft Hits (Immediate impact from new acquisitions)

According to research from NFL Newsz, teams that improve by 5+ wins in a season typically see:

• 23% increase in offensive efficiency

• 18% decrease in defensive missed tackles

• 41% improvement in turnover differential

Now let’s examine the 2024 teams defying expectations.

1. Houston Texans: From 3-13-1 to AFC South Leaders

Preseason Projection: 4th in AFC South
Current Standing: 1st in AFC South (5-2)

What’s Changed:

• C.J. Stroud’s Historic Rookie Season

  • 1,950 passing yards (7th in NFL)

  • 14:2 TD:INT ratio

  • League-best 72.3% completion rate on 3rd down

• DeMeco Ryans’ Defensive Revolution

  • Allowed 9 fewer points per game than 2023

  • #3 in red zone defense (42% TD rate)

  • Rookie DE Will Anderson: 5 sacks in 7 games

• Free Agent Wins

  • WR Robert Woods: 478 yards as reliable chain-mover

  • LB Denzel Perryman: Team-leading 54 tackles

Sustainability Check:
✅ Soft remaining schedule (4 games vs. Titans/Colts)
✅ Stroud playing beyond his years
❌ Lack of depth could be exposed by injuries

Expert Verdict: Legit division winner, possible wild card round upset

2. Chicago Bears: NFC North’s Unlikely Frontrunners

Preseason Projection: Last in NFC North
Current Standing: Tied 1st in NFC North (4-3)

What’s Changed:

• Justin Fields’ Quantum Leap

  • 68% completion rate (+12% from 2023)

  • 8.1 yards per attempt (3rd in NFL)

  • 5 game-winning drives already

• Defensive Personnel Overhaul

  • LB Tremaine Edmunds: 3 INTs, 2 forced fumbles

  • CB Kyler Gordon allowing 51% completion rate

  • 11 takeaways (T-4th in NFL)

• Shane Waldron’s Offensive Scheme

  • Using D.J. Moore in motion 38% of snaps

  • Screen game generating 89 YPG (2nd most)

Sustainability Check:
✅ Defense creating turnovers at elite rate
✅ Fields finally comfortable in offense
❌ Tough remaining schedule (Eagles, Lions x2, Browns)

Expert Verdict: Wild Card contender, but division may be stretch

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Post-Brady Rebuild Ahead of Schedule

Preseason Projection: 4th in NFC South
Current Standing: 1st in NFC South (5-2)

What’s Changed:

• Baker Mayfield’s Career Revival

  • 15 TDs vs. 4 INTs

  • 103.2 passer rating (6th best)

  • 3 comeback wins

• Todd Bowles’ Defensive Masterclass

  • Allowing 17.1 PPG (4th best)

  • Vita Vea dominating interior (21 QB pressures)

  • Secondary allowing 56% completion rate (2nd)

• Young Weapons Emerging

  • WR Trey Palmer: 4 TDs as WR3

  • RB Rachaad White: 5.2 YPC after contact

Sustainability Check:
✅ Weak division provides cushion
✅ Defense playing championship level
❌ Mayfield’s history of inconsistency

Expert Verdict: Division winner, but not true Super Bowl threat

Historical Context: How These Turnarounds Compare

Examining the most dramatic single-season turnarounds of the past decade helps contextualize 2024’s surprises:

The 2024 Texans are tracking similarly to the 2021 Bengals, while the Bears resemble the 2022 Giants in their formula.

Key Stats Driving These Surges

Advanced metrics from NFL Newsz reveal why these teams are succeeding:

1. Houston’s Offensive Line Improvement

• 2023: 56 sacks allowed (most in NFL)

• 2024: 11 sacks allowed (3rd fewest)

2. Chicago’s Defensive Turnaround

• 2023: 27.2 PPG allowed (29th)

• 2024: 19.1 PPG allowed (8th)

3. Tampa’s Red Zone Efficiency

• 2023: 48% TD rate (28th)

• 2024: 68% TD rate (4th)

Potential Roadblocks Ahead

Houston Texans

• December Gauntlet: Jets, @Browns, Titans, @Colts in final 4 weeks

• Rookie Wall Risk: Stroud/Anderson playing unprecedented snaps

Chicago Bears

• Injury Concerns: Already lost 3 OL starters

• Fields’ Durability: 31 sacks taken (4th most)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Schedule Difficulty: 49ers, @Packers, @Ravens in 3-week span

• Mayfield’s Cold Streaks: Career 58% completion rate in December

Fantasy Football Implications

Buy These Breakouts:

• C.J. Stroud (QB1 ROS)

• D.J. Moore (Top-8 WR)

• Rachaad White (RB1 in PPR)

Sell High Candidates:

• Robert Woods (Volume will decrease)

• Cole Kmet (TD-dependent)

• Mike Evans (Schedule gets tougher)

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Coaching Staff Impact

DeMeco Ryans (HOU)

• Implemented 49ers-style wide-zone run game

• Defensive play-calling disguising coverages masterfully

Matt Eberflus (CHI)

• Survived hot seat by handing offense to Waldron

• Defensive game plans limiting explosive plays NFL’s Most Shocking Turnarounds

Todd Bowles (TB)

• Adjusted blitz schemes to protect secondary

• Creative use of Antoine Winfield Jr. as Swiss Army knife

Final Predictions: Playoff Bound or Pretenders?

The Texans have the clearest path, while the Bears face an uphill battle in the loaded NFC.

Read More: The NFL’s Most Underrated Players 2024: 7 Game-Changers Flying Under the Radar

Conclusion: What These Turnarounds Mean for the NFL

NFL’s Most Shocking Turnarounds, These surprising contenders prove that in today’s NFL, rebuilds don’t need to take years. With the right quarterback development, smart coaching hires, and a few key acquisitions, teams can go from the basement to the penthouse in a single offseason.

As the season progresses, watch for:

• Houston’s December test against elite defenses

• Chicago’s divisional matchups that will make/break them

• Tampa’s ability to win close games

For ongoing analysis of these surprising contenders and all your NFL coverage, visit NFL Newsz – your home for insider insights and breaking developments.

Which turnaround are you buying? Can these teams make noise in the playoffs? Debate in the comments!