NFL Week 12 Playoff Picture 2024: Surging Contenders, Crumbling Pretenders, and the Most Competitive Wild Card Race in Years

As Thanksgiving approaches, NFL Week 12 Playoff Picture 2024 playoff race has reached a fever pitch with 21 teams still mathematically alive and the most competitive wild card battles we’ve seen in over a decade. This 1,500+ word exclusive breaks down:

• 5 teams punching above expectations

• 3 former contenders whose seasons are collapsing

• Updated division title probabilities

• Fantasy football playoff stash candidates

• Key injuries reshaping the postseason landscape

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The New Contenders: Teams Defying Expectations

1. Houston Texans (8-3) – The Cinderella Story

Why They’re Dangerous:

• C.J. Stroud’s historic sophomore season (28 TDs, 5 INTs)

• DeMeco Ryans’ defense forcing 2.3 turnovers per game

• Remaining schedule: 4 of last 6 at home

X-Factor: Tank Dell’s emergence (7 TDs in last 5 games)

 Texans playoff push analysis

2. Green Bay Packers (7-4) – Young Guns Thriving

Jordan Love’s Breakout:

• 18 TDs, 2 INTs since Week 6

• Perfect chemistry with rookie WRs

• Defense creating pressure (10 sacks last 2 games)

Critical Stretch: vs. KC, at NYG, vs. TB

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Crumbling Contenders: What Went Wrong?

1. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)

Collapse Factors:

• Joe Burrow never fully healthy (career-low 6.3 YPA)

• Defense allowing 28.4 PPG (3rd worst)

• Ja’Marr Chase frustration boiling over

2. New York Jets (5-6)

Rodgers Comeback Derailed:

• O-line injuries catastrophic (38 sacks allowed)

• Running game nonexistent (3.1 YPC)

• Brutal remaining schedule (vs. HOU, at MIA, vs. BUF)

3. Miami Dolphins (6-5)

Same Old Story:

• 0-4 vs. teams over .500

• Tua’s deep ball accuracy vanished

• Defense can’t stop physical offenses

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Division Title Probabilities

 Full playoff probability report

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The Wild Card Free-For-All

AFC Wild Card Race (6 teams for 3 spots)

1. Browns (7-4) – Elite defense but Watson inconsistent

2. Bills (7-4) – Josh Allen carrying flawed roster

3. Colts (6-5) – Anthony Richardson’s rushing threat

4. Chargers (6-5) – Herbert heating up at right time

5. Steelers (6-5) – Defense keeps them in every game

6. Broncos (5-6) – Sean Payton working miracles

NFC Wild Card Bloodbath (8 teams for 3 spots)

1. Cowboys (7-4)

2. Packers (7-4)

3. Rams (6-5)

4. Seahawks (6-5)

5. Buccaneers (5-6)

6. Vikings (5-6)

7. Falcons (5-6)

8. Bears (4-7)

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Fantasy Football Playoff Stashes

League-Winning Pickups

Sell Before It’s Too Late

• Derrick Henry (hitting the wall)

• Mike Evans (brutal playoff schedule)

• James Cook (cold weather games loom)

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Betting Market Update

Super Bowl Odds Shakeup

 Ravens +350 (from +450)
49ers +400 (from +350)
Texans +1000 (from +1800)

Best Value Bets

• Lions +1200 (cakewalk schedule)

• Browns +1800 (if Watson gets hot)

• Packers +2500 (darkest horse)

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Injury Impact Report

Season-Altering Absences

• Justin Jefferson (MIN): Hamstring (Week 13 return)

• Tristan Wirfs (TB): Ankle (potentially done)

• Nick Chubb (CLE): PUP list return unlikely

Key Returns

• Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) – Last gasp for playoffs

• Joe Burrow (CIN) – Playing for pride

• Cooper Kupp (LAR) – Stafford needs him

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Coaching Hot Seat Watch

Falling Fast

1. Matt Eberflus (CHI) – Wasting Caleb Williams

2. Robert Saleh (NYJ) – Collapse unacceptable

3. Arthur Smith (ATL) – Bijan usage criminal

Coach of the Year Frontrunners

1. DeMeco Ryans (HOU)

2. John Harbaugh (BAL)

3. Dan Campbell (DET)

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Week 12 Games With Massive Implications

Ravens at Chargers (Sunday Night)

• Lamar vs. Herbert shootout potential

• Chargers’ last stand for playoffs

Packers at Lions (Thanksgiving)

• NFC North supremacy at stake

• Jordan Love’s biggest test yet

Texans at Jaguars

• AFC South likely decided here

• Stroud vs. Lawrence generational duel

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Final Playoff Projections

AFC Seeds

1. Ravens (14-3)

2. Chiefs (13-4)

3. Texans (12-5)

4. Browns (11-6)

5. Jaguars (11-6)

6. Bills (10-7)

7. Colts (9-8)

NFC Seeds

1. 49ers (14-3)

2. Eagles (13-4)

3. Lions (12-5)

4. Saints (9-8)

5. Cowboys (11-6)

6. Packers (10-7)

7. Rams (9-8)

Read More: NFL Week 10 Power Rankings 2024: Contenders Exposed, Surprise Teams Surging, and Playoff Scenarios Taking Shape

Why This Race is Historic

• Most teams alive at Week 12 since 2014

• 7 teams with 7-4 records (NFL record)

• 5 divisions still up for grabs

• 12 teams within 1 game of wild card NFL Week 12 Playoff Picture 2024

 Interactive playoff simulator