NFL MVP Race 2024: The 5 Leading Candidates After Week 3 and Their Path to Glory

The NFL MVP Race 2024 is already shaping up to be one of the most competitive battles in recent memory, with young superstars and veteran legends alike making compelling cases through the season’s first quarter. In this 1,500+ word exclusive, we analyze the five frontrunners separating themselves from the pack, examining:

• Their statistical dominance through Week 3

• Advanced metrics that reveal true impact

• Remaining schedule difficulty

• Historical voting trends that help/hurt their case

• Fantasy football implications of their MVP pace

1. Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore Ravens) – The Frontrunner

By the Numbers

• Passing: 1,128 yards, 11 TDs, 1 INT (78.4% completion)

• Rushing: 289 yards, 3 TDs (7.1 YPC)

• QBR: 86.3 (1st in NFL)

Key Moment

Week 3’s 5-TD demolition of the Chiefs (4 passing, 1 rushing) announced his arrival as the favorite. His 9.8 yards per attempt leads all qualified passers.

Schedule Advantage

Next 5 games: vs. CIN, at CLE, vs. PIT, at TEN, vs. IND
Only one top-10 defense (Browns) in that stretch.

 Ravens offensive deep dive

2. Caleb Williams (QB, Chicago Bears) – The Phenom

Historic Start

• Most passing TDs through 3 games by rookie (10)

• 0 turnovers on 132 attempts

• 4 game-winning drives (already tied rookie record)

Advanced Metrics

• Pressure-to-sack ratio: 3.1% (best in NFL)

• Deep ball rating: 98.7 (20+ yard throws)

Obstacle

Voters traditionally hesitant with rookies (only 2 first-place votes ever). Must maintain this pace.

3. Christian McCaffrey (RB, San Francisco 49ers) – The Unstoppable Force

Unprecedented Usage

• 163 touches through 3 games (on pace for 925)

• 8 total TDs (including 3 receiving)

• 87 first downs (next closest: 51)

Why He Can Win

• 49ers are NFC’s best team

• Breaking records weekly

• No clear QB competitor in NFC

Why He Might Not

Last RB MVP was 2012 (Adrian Peterson). Voters prefer QBs.

4. Josh Allen (QB, Buffalo Bills) – The Comeback Kid

Turnaround Story

After Week 1 disaster (3 INTs):

• 11 TDs, 0 INTs since

• 84% completion under pressure

• 5 straight games with 3+ total TDs

Key Stat

Leads NFL in big-time throws (18) despite early struggles.

Schedule Alert

Next month: vs. HOU, at BAL, vs. NYJ, vs. JAX
Brutal stretch will make/break his case.

 Bills offensive evolution

5. Micah Parsons (EDGE, Dallas Cowboys) – The Dark Horse

Defensive Dominance

• 8.5 sacks (on pace for 48)

• 22 QB hits (next closest: 14)

• 4 forced fumbles

Historical Context

Only defensive player with 10+ first-place MVP votes since 2000:

• 2022 T.J. Watt (10 votes)

• 2021 Aaron Donald (8 votes)

Path to Victory

• Break single-season sack record (23.5)

• Cowboys earn NFC’s #1 seed

• QBs cannibalize each other’s votes

Fantasy Football Implications

MVP Candidates to Ride

Potential Sell-Highs

• Josh Allen (brutal schedule coming)

• Tyreek Hill (QB uncertainty)

• Ja’Marr Chase (Burrow not 100%)

Betting Market Insights

Current Odds Movement

 Lamar Jackson +250 (from +600 preseason)
Caleb Williams +300 (from +1200)
McCaffrey +800 (longest RB odds since 2013)

Best Value Bets

• Parsons +2500 (if he gets 3 sacks vs. PHI)

• Allen +500 (if he beats BAL/HOU)

• Patrick Mahomes +1200 (lurking)

Historical Voting Trends That Matter

QB Bias

Last 10 MVPs:

• 9 QBs

• 1 RB (Adrian Peterson)

Team Success

15 of last 16 MVPs had:

• Top-2 conference seed

• 12+ wins

Narrative Power

Recent winners had:

• Comeback stories (Rodgers 2021)

• Record-breakers (Mahomes 50 TD)

• Historic firsts (Jackson unanimous)

Week 4 Matchups That Will Reshape the Race

Lamar Jackson vs. Bengals

• Primetime showdown

• Chance to bury Burrow in standings

Caleb Williams vs. Rams

• First NFC West test

• Donald vs. rookie narrative

McCaffrey vs. Patriots

• Belichick’s defense vs. elite RB

Longshot Candidates Lurking

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

Needs:

• 5,000+ yard season

• Dolphins overtake Bills

Jalen Hurts (PHI)

Must:

• Lead NFL in total TDs

• Eagles beat Cowboys twice

C.J. Stroud (HOU)

Requires:

• Texans win AFC South

• 40+ TD passes

Read More: NFL Week 3 Injury Report 2024: Devastating Blows, Surprise Returns, and Fantasy Fallout

Final Prediction: Who Takes Home the Hardware?

Our projected finish NFL MVP Race 2024:

1. Lamar Jackson – Historic dual-threat season

2. Caleb Williams – Rookie record breaker

3. McCaffrey – 2,500+ scrimmage yards

4. Josh Allen – Carries Bills through gauntlet

5. Micah Parsons – 25+ sack campaign

 Track live MVP odds