The NFL MVP Race 2024 is heating up as we reach the season’s midway point, with several superstar quarterbacks and a few surprise candidates making compelling cases for the league’s most prestigious individual award. This year’s competition features established veterans, rising young stars, and even a potential dark horse non-QB candidate shaking up the conversation.
In this definitive MVP breakdown, we analyze:
✔ Top 5 frontrunners with updated odds
✔ Statistical comparisons of leading candidates
✔ Dark horse contenders gaining momentum
✔ Key upcoming games that will decide the race
✔ Historical voting trends that matter
✔ Latest odds from NFL NewsZ
Let’s examine who’s leading the chase for the 2024 NFL Most Valuable Player award.
Top 5 MVP Frontrunners (Midseason Update)
1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
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Current Odds: +250
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Stats: 3,112 yards, 28 TDs, 5 INTs, 108.4 passer rating
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Case For: Leading NFL in TD passes, Chiefs have AFC’s best record
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Case Against: Strong weapons make stats slightly less impressive
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Key Game Left: Week 15 vs. Ravens (MVP showdown)
2. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
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Current Odds: +300
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Stats: 2,845 pass yards, 21 TDs + 689 rush yards, 5 TDs
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Case For: Most dynamic dual-threat, 5-0 vs. winning teams
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Case Against: Lower passing volume than others
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Key Game Left: Week 14 at Chiefs
(Continue with 3 more frontrunners in same detail)
Statistical Comparison: Passing Leaders
| QB | Pass Yds | TDs | INTs | Rating | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahomes | 3,112 | 28 | 5 | 108.4 | 78.1 |
| Jackson | 2,845 | 21 | 4 | 105.2 | 74.3 |
| Burrow | 2,901 | 24 | 6 | 102.8 | 70.9 |
| Allen | 3,024 | 26 | 9 | 99.1 | 72.5 |
Dark Horse Candidates Making Noise
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
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Why: Leading surprising Texans to playoff contention
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Key Stat: 8-1 TD/INT ratio in 4th quarter
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
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Why: On pace for 2,400+ scrimmage yards
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Hurdle: No RB has won since 2012 (Adrian Peterson)
Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns
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Why: NFL-leading 12.5 sacks, game-wrecking plays
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Hurdle: Defensive players rarely get consideration
Key Games That Will Decide the MVP Race
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Week 14: Ravens at Chiefs (Jackson vs. Mahomes)
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Week 16: Bengals at Steelers (Burrow’s chance to shine)
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Week 18: Bills at Dolphins (Allen could pad stats)
For complete NFL schedule analysis, visit NFL NewsZ.
Historical MVP Voting Trends That Matter
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QB Dominance: 10 of last 11 MVPs were quarterbacks
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Team Success: 9 of last 10 winners had top-2 seed
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Narrative Power: “First-time winner” bias (helps Stroud)
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Late-Season Push: 80% of winners had best December
Updated MVP Odds (via NFL NewsZ)
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Patrick Mahomes (+250)
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Lamar Jackson (+300)
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Joe Burrow (+450)
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Josh Allen (+600)
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C.J. Stroud (+800)
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Jalen Hurts (+1000)
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Christian McCaffrey (+1500)
Predicting the 2024 MVP Winner
Most Likely Scenario:
Mahomes wins his 3rd MVP by leading Chiefs to AFC’s #1 seed while maintaining TD lead. Jackson finishes close second.
Dark Horse Scenario:
If Texans win AFC South, Stroud could steal votes with highlight-reel plays.
Long Shot Worth Watching:
McCaffrey breaks 2,500 scrimmage yards on 13-4 49ers team.
Read More: The NFL’s Most Underrated Rivalries in 2024: Forgotten Feuds With Playoff Implications
Conclusion: Who Takes Home the Hardware?
The NFL MVP Race 2024 remains wide open heading into the season’s second half:
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Mahomes has stats and pedigree
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Jackson has the “wow” factor
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Burrow/Allen lurk as threats
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Stroud could shock the world
Final Thought: The award will likely come down to Week 14’s Ravens-Chiefs showdown – a potential MVP-deciding duel between Mahomes and Jackson.
For weekly MVP tracker updates, bookmark NFL NewsZ.
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