2024 NFL MVP Race: Early Favorites, Dark Horses, and Surprise Contenders

2024 NFL MVP Race, The 2024 NFL season promises one of the most wide-open MVP races in recent memory, with established superstars, rising phenoms, and comeback candidates all vying for the league’s most prestigious individual honor. As teams prepare for training camp, the MVP landscape is already taking shape, with compelling storylines emerging across the league.

In this definitive 2,200-word preview, we analyze:

✔ The top 10 legitimate MVP candidates
✔ Statistical benchmarks needed to win
✔ Dark horse contenders with realistic paths
✔ How team success impacts voting trends
✔ Historical patterns that predict 2024’s winner

1. The Favorites: Top 5 MVP Frontrunners

1. Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) – +450 Odds

Why He’ll Win:

• Coming off back-to-back Super Bowls

• Added Marquise Brown at receiver

• Narrative of potential “three-peat” boost

Concerns:

• Voter fatigue (would be 3rd MVP)

• Tough AFC West schedule

2. Josh Allen (Bills) – +600 Odds

Why He’ll Win:

• League-leading 44 total TDs in 2023

• Must carry offense after Diggs trade

• Always puts up video game numbers

Concerns:

• Supporting cast weakened

• Interception issues (18 in last two seasons)

 For updated odds visit NFL NewsZ

2. The Next Tier: Serious Contenders

3. Joe Burrow (Bengals) – +800

• Fully healthy after wrist surgery

• Best WR duo in football (Chase/Higgins)

• Prime time showcase games

4. Lamar Jackson (Ravens) – +900

• Added Derrick Henry to offense

• Always dominant regular season performer

• 2023 MVP looking to repeat

5. C.J. Stroud (Texans) – +1200

• Added Stefon Diggs to explosive offense

• Could make historic sophomore leap

• Texas media market boost

3. Dark Horse Candidates (Longshot Value)

4. Historical MVP Trends That Matter

Recent Voting Patterns

• 9 of last 10 MVPs were QBs

• 7 of last 10 played for #1 seed

• Average stats of recent QB MVPs:

  • 4,500+ yards

  • 38+ TDs

  • <10 INTs

  • Team wins: 12+

What This Means for 2024

• Non-QBs face nearly impossible odds

• Team success remains crucial

• Efficiency > Volume (TD:INT ratio critical)

 More historical analysis at NFL NewsZ

5. Positional Breakdown: Can Anyone Break the QB Streak?

Running Back Hopefuls

• Christian McCaffrey (49ers) – Would need 2,500+ scrimmage yards

• Bijan Robinson (Falcons) – Breakout candidate in new offense

Defensive Longshots

• Micah Parsons (Cowboys) – Requires 20+ sack season

• T.J. Watt (Steelers) – Needs to break sack record

Wide Receiver Pipe Dreams

• Justin Jefferson (Vikings) – 2,000+ yards + playoff berth

• Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) – Would need record TD numbers

6. Team Success Factor: Projected Win Totals

Key Insight: Recent MVPs came from teams averaging 12.3 wins 2024 NFL MVP Race

7. Early Prediction: How the Race Will Unfold

First Half Leader (Weeks 1-8)

• Josh Allen – Soft early schedule pads stats

Midseason Surge (Weeks 9-14)

• Joe Burrow – Prime time showcase games

Closing Argument (Weeks 15-18)

• Patrick Mahomes – December dominance continues

Final 2024 MVP Pick:

Lamar Jackson edges Mahomes in tight race thanks to:
✅ Career-high passing numbers with Henry’s help
✅ Ravens secure AFC’s #1 seed
✅ Highlight-reel plays dominate social media

Read More: 2024 NFL Offensive Line Rankings: Which Teams Will Dominate in the Trenches?

Final Verdict: Most Competitive Race in a Decade

The 2024 MVP battle features:
5+ legitimate candidates
Unprecedented dark horse value
Young stars ready to leap into contention

This could be the year we finally see:
❌ A non-QB winner (if McCaffrey goes nuclear)
❌ A sophomore MVP (Stroud’s opportunity)
❌ A historic three-peat (Mahomes’ chance)

 For weekly MVP tracker visit NFL NewsZ