The NFL MVP award represents the pinnacle of individual achievement in professional football, and the 2024 race features one of the most wide-open competitions in recent memory. With established superstars, ascending young quarterbacks, and potential historic candidates, this season’s MVP battle could come down to the final weeks. In this 2,500+ word definitive guide, we analyze:
✔ The top 10 legitimate MVP candidates for 2024
✔ Statistical benchmarks needed to win the award
✔ Dark horse candidates with realistic paths
✔ How schedule strength impacts the race
✔ Fantasy football implications for each contender
✔ Historical voting trends that favor certain profiles
Let’s examine the fascinating MVP landscape taking shape for the 2024 NFL season.
The Favorites: Top 5 MVP Frontrunners
1. Patrick Mahomes (QB – Kansas City Chiefs)
Why He’s the Favorite:
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Back-to-back Super Bowl MVP performances
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Added Marquise Brown to receiving corps
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Most talented QB in football entering prime
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Voter fatigue may be only obstacle
Key Stat Needed:
5,000+ total yards, 40+ TDs to secure 3rd MVP
For the latest Chiefs training camp reports, visit NFL Newsz.
2. Joe Burrow (QB – Cincinnati Bengals)
MVP Case:
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Fully healthy after wrist surgery
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Elite weapons (Chase, Higgins, Gesicki)
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Plays in high-profile AFC North battles
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2022 showed MVP potential (35 TDs)
Potential Obstacle:
Tough division defenses
According to the official NFL website, Burrow has a 102.7 passer rating since 2021.
The Contenders: Strong Cases to Be Made
3. Josh Allen (QB – Buffalo Bills)
Why He’s Always in Mix:
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40+ total TDs in 4 straight seasons
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Improved offensive line this offseason
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Still the ultimate dual-threat weapon
What He Needs:
Cut down turnovers (17 INTs in 2023)
4. Lamar Jackson (QB – Baltimore Ravens)
Repeat Potential:
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Added Derrick Henry to offense
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Always a threat for 1,000 rush yards
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Improved passing mechanics
Historical Trend:
Only 9 players have won multiple MVPs
The Dark Horses: Potential Surprise Winners
5. C.J. Stroud (QB – Houston Texans)
Why He Could Leap:
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Added Stefon Diggs to explosive offense
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Year 2 jump expected after historic rookie year
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Weak AFC South schedule
Stat That Would Impress Voters:
5,000 pass yards in sophomore season
Historical MVP Voting Trends
Last 5 Winners:
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2023: Lamar Jackson
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2022: Patrick Mahomes
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2021: Aaron Rodgers
Key Patterns:
✅ QBs have won 45 of last 50 MVPs
✅ 4,500+ yards/35+ TDs is baseline
✅ Team success matters (usually top-2 seed)
For MVP race analysis, bookmark NFL Newsz.
Fantasy Football Implications
MVP Candidates to Target Early:
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Patrick Mahomes (Round 1)
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Josh Allen (Round 2)
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Jalen Hurts (Round 3)
Value Picks With MVP Upside:
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C.J. Stroud (Round 5-6)
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Justin Herbert (Round 4-5)
Schedule Analysis That Could Decide the Race
Easiest Paths:
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Patrick Mahomes – 4th easiest QB schedule
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C.J. Stroud – AFC South weakest division
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Jordan Love – 8 dome/controlled climate games
Toughest Paths:
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Josh Allen – Faces 7 top-10 defenses
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Joe Burrow – Ravens/Steelers twice each
Predicting the Winner: Key Factors
Most Likely Scenario:
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Patrick Mahomes – If Chiefs earn #1 seed
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Joe Burrow – 5,000-yard campaign
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Dark Horse – C.J. Stroud’s sophomore leap
What Ultimately Decides It:
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Head-to-head matchups between contenders
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Primetime performances
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Late-season “Heisman moments”
Why the 2024 MVP Race Matters
This year’s award will:
✅ Cement legacy for Mahomes as all-time great
✅ Launch next-gen QBs into superstardom
✅ Provide fantasy football league winners
✅ Shape offseason narratives
Bookmark NFL Newsz for weekly MVP race updates!
Read More: 2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Race: Top Candidates & Dark Horses
Key Takeaways
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Patrick Mahomes remains the man to beat
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Joe Burrow has perfect setup for MVP run
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C.J. Stroud could make historic sophomore leap
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Fantasy managers should target these QBs early
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Schedule strength will play pivotal role
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