NFL News

2024 Midseason MVP Race: Is [Star QB] Running Away With It?

October 12, 20242

The 2024 Midseason MVP Race season has reached its midway point, and the MVP race is heating up. While some familiar faces are dominating the conversation, a few surprise contenders have emerged as potential dark horses. In this in-depth analysis, we’ll break down the top MVP candidates, examine their stats, strengths, and weaknesses, and predict who has the best chance to take home the prestigious award.

Current NFL MVP Standings (Midseason 2024)

As we approach Week 9, here are the top contenders for the 2024 NFL MVP award, ranked based on performance, team success, and impact:

1. Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)

Stats: 2,800+ yards, 22 TDs, 4 INTs, 108.5 passer rating
Team Record: 7-1 (1st in AFC)
Why He’s Leading: Mahomes continues to be the gold standard at QB, making impossible throws look routine. The Chiefs are Super Bowl favorites again, and if they secure the No. 1 seed, Mahomes will be hard to beat.

2. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)

Stats: 2,600+ yards, 20 TDs (5 rushing), 6 INTs
Team Record: 6-2 (2nd in AFC)
Why He’s in the Mix: Allen’s dual-threat ability keeps Buffalo in every game. His late-game heroics (3 game-winning drives) give him an edge.

3. Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)

Stats: 2,400+ yards, 18 TDs (8 rushing), 3 INTs
Team Record: 7-1 (1st in NFC)
Why He’s a Threat: Hurts is the engine of Philly’s offense. His clutch performances in prime time (wins over 49ers, Cowboys) boost his case.

4. Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)

Stats: 2,300+ yards, 17 TDs (600+ rushing yards)
Team Record: 6-2 (1st in AFC North)
Why He’s Here: Jackson is having his best passing season yet, and his rushing ability adds unmatched value.

5. Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)

Stats: 2,700+ yards, 19 TDs, 5 INTs
Team Record: 6-2 (AFC Wild Card leader)
Why He’s in the Conversation: Tua leads the NFL’s most explosive offense. If Miami wins the AFC East, his stock rises.

Dark Horse Candidates Who Could Surprise

While the usual suspects dominate MVP talks, these players are making a late push:

1. Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Stats: 2,200+ yards, 16 TDs, 5 INTs
Team Record: 5-3 (1st in NFC South)
Why He’s a Sleeper: Mayfield has revived his career in Tampa. If the Bucs win the division, he’ll get votes.

2. C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)

Stats: 2,500+ yards, 15 TDs, 3 INTs
Team Record: 5-3 (Wild Card contender)
Why He’s in the Mix: Stroud is the runaway Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite. If Houston makes the playoffs, he could steal MVP votes.

3. Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers)

Stats: 1,200+ total yards, 12 TDs
Team Record: 6-2 (1st in NFC West)
Why He’s Unique: No RB has won MVP since 2012, but CMC is the NFL’s most versatile weapon. If he hits 2,000+ scrimmage yards, he’ll be in the conversation.

Key Factors That Will Decide the MVP Race

1. Team Success (Playoff Seed Matters)

Historically, MVPs come from top 2 seeds. Mahomes, Hurts, and Allen have the edge here.

2. Signature Moments (Prime-Time Performances)

Hurts’ wins over Dallas/San Francisco and Allen’s comebacks stand out.

3. Stats vs. Narrative

Stroud has the narrative (rookie sensation), but Mahomes has the stats + wins.

4. Late-Season Surge (Who Finishes Strong?)

The MVP is often won in December. Lamar Jackson could make a late charge.

Final Prediction: Who Wins MVP in 2024?

Right now, it’s a three-man race between Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts. Here’s our projection:

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) – The safe bet if KC stays dominant.
Jalen Hurts (Eagles) – If Philly secures the NFC’s No. 1 seed, he could overtake Mahomes.
Josh Allen (Bills) – Needs a few more statement wins.

Sleeper Pick: If the Texans shock the NFL and win the AFC South, C.J. Stroud could become the first rookie MVP in history.