Final week I acquired run-through by my Texas A&M pairing of Kellen Mond and C.J. Spiller who tore up Florida. Nonetheless I nonetheless gained my three non-A&M associated wagers to maintain me above .500 for the fourth straight week.
To this point this column has produced a 16-4 Win/Loss report on these participant prop suggestions. This week is the final slate earlier than we get an injection of Huge Ten/Mountain West groups that ought to supply loads of worth for the reason that oddsmakers do not have a latest knowledge set to base their traces off.
I’ll say this week is one of the best job DK’s has achieved in pricing their prop traces up to now this yr. Solely took a month of being relentlessly pounded to smarten up apparently. Don’t fret although, we nonetheless have 5 high quality choices to think about.
Zamir White – Georgia – 77.5
Coming of back-to-back ACL tears, “Zeus” backed up D’Andre Swift final yr, speeding 76 occasions for 408 yards, a 5.2 YPC and three touchdowns. Heading into the season, Zeus held off James Prepare dinner, Kenny McIntosh and highly-touted true freshman Kendall Milton for RB1 standing within the probably profitable UGA backfield.
Nonetheless within the first three video games of the season, the previous number-one ranked operating again recruit within the nation has not run away with the job like many anticipated. In his protection,White has dealt with a mean of 17 carries per recreation with out carrying down. Nonetheless the quantity is weighed down by a sub-par 3.9 YPC and solely three receptions for 19 yards over three video games, rendering him an afterthought within the passing recreation.
Final recreation towards SEC East rival Tennessee, he carried 22 occasions for 50 yards, a 2.3 YPC. Conversely, Kendall Milton rushed 8 occasions for 56 yards for a 7.0 YPC whereas attacking tacklers with a burst and physicality that White has merely not proven this yr. On high of Milton’s spectacular displaying, passing-down specialist James Prepare dinner is predicted to return this week. Now UGA hits the prime-time towards SEC powerhouse Alabama. Remember, Texas A&M was in a position to break massive good points with RB Ainias Smith using swing-passes to tear off a number of chunk performs out of the backfield. James Prepare dinner has a really comparable talent set to Smith and may see loads of motion.
With three confirmed backs now established in his backfield secure, I see extra of a division of labor this week. HC Kirby Good’s total legacy rides on how he performs towards his former boss. I believe Zamir sees much less carries than he’s been accustomed to. That’s an issue since he’s not a house run hitter and wishes quantity to provide massive counting stats. DK’s did a significantly better job of pricing this week, however this can be a tender line. Pound the Underneath 77.5
Amari Rogers – Clemson – 79.5
Rogers leads Clemson with 268 receiving yards on 19 receptions with a 12.4 YPC over 4 video games this season. To this point this yr, Amari has hit the 80 yard mark required to win this guess just one out of 4 occasions. The lone Over-80 efficiency got here Week 1 when he caught 5 passes for 90 yards towards Wake Forest. Contemplating his excessive rating for the yr solely cleared the 80 yard mark by 10 yards, there’s all types of worth related to an Underneath 80 play right here.
Past these efficiency associated metrics, HC Dabo Swinney indicated 2019 spring recreation standout WR Joseph Ngata is supposedly able to return from an stomach damage to occupy a beginning WR slot within the Tiger offense. If Ngata returns wholesome, you may relaxation assured he’ll see a superb share of targets. When coupling the one-in-four 80-yard hit charge with the return of the preseason favourite to guide Clemson in receiving yards, it’s a simple beneath play on a possession slot receiver like Rogers.
Seth Williams – Auburn – 77.5
12 months two of the Bo Nix period beneath new OC Chad Morris was speculated to function a passing assault able to breaking a giant play at any second. With the Tigers’ sophomore sign caller averaging a scant 199 yards passing per recreation whereas finishing 57 p.c of his passes and sporting a 6.2 YPA, it’s secure to say the prophecy of a reborn Auburn passing assault has but to come back to fruition.
For his half Seth Williams had an enormous first recreation towards Kentucky, catching six passes for 112 yards and two touchdowns in a 29-13 victory. Nonetheless he acquired banged up towards Georgia, topping out at 34 yards and appeared nonetheless hobbled final week towards Arkansas when he caught three passes for 70 yards in a decent recreation towards the Razorbacks. With Williams ailing, slot receiver Anthony Schwartz obtained 27 targets during the last two video games, catching 10 passes for 100 yards and a landing final recreation.
This week Auburn is on the highway at South Carolina. With Tank Bigsby and Kevin Harris each speeding for over 150-yards final week, we may see the bottom recreation take over with a closing rating of 20-17 in play. Final yr Williams went beneath 77.5 eight-of-12 occasions. This yr he’s gone beneath in 2-of-3 video games for a complete of five-for-15 (33%) for the reason that starting of final yr. His damage, Schwartz’ uptick in utilization and Auburn’s suspect OL imply one other recreation of sunshine passing numbers for Bo Nix. I’m taking the Underneath 77.5 with the chance that Williams continues to be dinged up looming massive.
Jaylen Waddle – Alabama – 100.5
My readers have possible picked up on the actual fact I like taking part in unders for these participant props. It would fly within the face of typical knowledge since our pure inclination is to root for factors since everybody loves offense. Nonetheless accidents are a part of the sport, and game-scripts can snuff out even probably the most enticing Over play. Regardless of my tendencies to cheer for poor clock administration through Underneath wagers, I at all times prefer to toss in a single Over play for my action-junkies on the market who don’t get pleasure from watching paint-dry like myself. It’s not straightforward being DFS/school fantasy-scrooge, however somebody has to do it.
Which is why if i’m going to guess an Over, it’d as properly be on the most-exciting aerial playmaker in school soccer, Jaylen Waddle. I’ve been listening to about Waddle from my shut good friend and school soccer fantasy/playing savant Joe Capozzi (@CFFcoordinator on Twitter) for years. As a former collegiate defensive coordinator who has analyzed extra school soccer than any human i’ve ever met, Capozzi loves Waddle a lot i’m legitimately shocked he hasn’t named a baby or a pet after him. The merciless truth is that this – Waddle has blown away the 100.5 mark in each recreation he’s performed.
He hasn’t simply crushed the mark, he’s obliterated it:
Week 1 @ Mizzou – 8/134/2
Week 2 vs. Texas A&M – 5/142/1
Week 3 @ Ole Miss – 6/120
Alabama’s offense vs. Georgia’s protection is the trendy day model of the irresistible drive assembly the immovable object. For these of us that don’t converse Gorilla Monsoon-english – Alabama is Hulk Hogan, while Georgia is Andre The Big. Hopefully no one performs heel-ref Earl Hebner just like the officers did on the backwards spike name within the Arkansas vs. Auburn recreation final weekend. Backside line is I really like taking elite gamers, on elite groups, in prime time video games. Give me the Over 100.5 on my buddy Capozzi’s subsequent bulldog, Waddle.
Stetson Bennett – Georgia – 240.5
When considering my write-up for the faculty soccer world’s most prolific former walk-on, for some inexplicable cause, Simon Garfunkel’s seminal basic “Sound of Silence” popped into my head. Thus, I’ll serenade my readers with a short Bizarre Al-esque tune parody.
“Hi there Stetson my new good friend
I’m right here to guess on you once more
As a result of your expertise leaves me considering
About your efficiency inevitably sinking
And the imaginative and prescient of your throwing movement implanted in my mind
My wager’s an act, of defiance”
The final three weeks, the SEC quarterback named after each octogenarian’s favourite musky cologne has improbably led UGA to a 3-0 report and third-place rating within the polls. He hasn’t been pressured to throw a lot, averaging 28 passes per recreation and 18 completions. He has additionally but to throw for 241 yards in any of his appearances, although he did hit 238 passing yards final week and 240 yards towards Auburn the week earlier than. We’re shut on this one, little doubt. However I’ve to present DK’s some credit score right here, final week the road was 257.5 they usually’ve at the very least come again to actuality after getting throttled by everybody of their eight-state protection space on their final line.
I backed the Underneath play final week for a similar cause I’m this week – the clock will strike midnight on Stetson. It occurred with the foul-smelling, Pine-Sol knockoff cologne and it’ll occur to the quarterback of the identical namesake. I understand that Alabama’s go protection acquired shredded like an Enron balance-sheet by Ole Miss final week, however i’m resolute in my assertion that the wheels will fall off this prepare, and I’ll journey it till he lastly hits his quantity or is changed by J.T. Daniels. Underneath 240.5 on Stetson’s stat-line.