Predictions, picks for each bowl recreation


School soccer bowl season is my absolute favourite time of the 12 months. For probably the most half, bowl video games function matchups between groups which have but to face one another. You get groups which might be making their first journey to a bowl or their first bowl in years, groups that need to experience a win streak, and seniors seeking to showcase their abilities one final time.

Retaining observe of participant opt-outs is essential. In case you’re in search of basic tips about betting throughout bowl season, try a couple of pointers right here

With just some weeks left of the 2021 season, I’ll be offering some ideas, issues and picks for each bowl recreation. As a result of there are such a lot of, there can be alternatives to money. Hopefully, I can offer you a few of these alternatives.

The plan: If I’ve a powerful conviction, I’ll label it as “choose” moderately than “prediction.” In case you don’t see a recreation you’re in search of, test again periodically as this can be a operating weblog and posts can be added via the School Soccer Playoff.

Additionally, ensure to comply with me on Twitter. That is the place I’ll publish any last-minute participant opt-outs, accidents, or teaching adjustments.

Tuesday, December 28

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl: Houston vs Auburn -2, 51

Auburn QB Bo Nix made the switch to Oregon earlier this month. That information doesn’t have an effect on the road a lot, nevertheless, as a result of Nix sat out the ultimate two video games from damage leaving TJ Finley to get the beginning in back-to-back losses to South Carolina and Alabama. Out for Auburn is CB Roger McCreary, leads in passes deflected and tied for many caught interceptions. This, on an already weak secondary because the Tigers are ranked ninety fifth in opposition to the go and now down one in every of its greatest defenders. One factor to ponder: simply how wholesome Finley can be after injuring his ankle within the season finale. In case you watched that recreation, he was hobbling badly. In a current interview, Finley stated he thinks he can be again to 100%.

Auburn’s greatest protection, in opposition to the run. Houston is a pass-heavy offense. In opposition to comparable offenses, Auburn gave up 28 factors and 300 passing yards to Penn State, and 43 factors and 415 passing yards to Mississippi State. Houston does have a high 10 protection however managed to surrender 38 factors to Texas Tech and 42 to South Florida. Finley was aggressive in opposition to Alabama…injured.

Prediction: OVER 51

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: Louisville vs Air Pressure -1, 54.5

I can’t assist however see a discipline aim recreation which is retaining me off a aspect. This line has seen some motion with it opening as a choose’em, shifting to Louisville -1 as of yesterday and as of at this time sits with Air Pressure -1. As an alternative, I’ll have a look at the whole. These are two run-first groups however Louisville protection is weak in opposition to the run, ranked seventy fifth in dashing yards allowed giving up 35 factors and 212 dashing yards to UCF, 52 factors and 52 factors and 362 dashing yards to Kentucky. AIr Pressure is the primary dashing offense within the nation however Louisville is fifth greatest in yards per rush try.

The Falcons will get theirs as a result of the Cardinals protection is backside 20 purple zone scores allowed and backside 40 in touchdowns allowed, and 77th in opponent factors per play. Nonetheless, that is an environment friendly offense that in seven video games this season, was in a position to rating 30 factors or extra. Air Pressure will rating, Louisville must sustain.

Prediction: OVER 54.5

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Texas Tech vs Mississippi State -9.5, 58.5

Climate might come into play however with simply 12 mph winds, 23 mph gusts, and light-weight rain anticipated, it may be a non-factor. Out for Texas Tech is WR Erik Ezukanma, lead in receptions, receiving yards (705 of the three,092), with 4 of the 17 receiving scores. Anticipated to be again within the lineup for the Crimson Raiders is WR3 Myles Worth, 451 receiving yards and two receiving scores. This line opened with the Bulldogs as 8-point favorites and the whole at 60. I agree with each line strikes.

So long as there are not any participant opt-outs, I just like the Bulldogs on this spot with QB Will Rogers main the cost. Ranked third in passing yards, Rogers leads the FBS in completion share and is high 10 in touchdowns thrown. In opposition to different passing groups, Texas Tech gave up 70 factors and 303 passing yards to Texas, 52 factors advert 469 passing yards to Oklahoma, and 38 factors and 356 yards to Iowa State, although did occur to defeat the Cyclones whereas shedding by double digits to each the Longhorns and Sooners. Maintaining with a potent offense might be a tall activity for Tech with out its main receiver.

Prediction: Mississippi State -9.5

San Diego County Credit score Union Vacation Bowl: NC State -1.5 vs UCLA, 59.5

Out for the Bruins is DB Qwuantrezz Knight. He leads the crew in tackles and compelled fumbles, is fifth in sacks, and fourth in passes deflected. Is also out DL2 Otito Ogbonnia.

Preserve a watch out for climate. Could also be some mild wind, perhaps some rain in San Diego. This line is tight for a cause as this needs to be a aggressive matchup. The Wolf Pack has performed effectively in opposition to dashing groups defeating Louisville and Syracuse by double digits and North Carolina by three factors. Nonetheless, the Bruins have performed effectively in opposition to passing groups, shedding to Fresno State by simply three factors and rolling USC 62-33.

NC State has the higher scoring protection, UCLA has the higher scoring offense, which supplies? I’ll guess the protection. NC State shouldn’t be bulletproof to opponent scoring, permitting 30 factors and just below 300 yards of dashing offense to UNC within the finale, giving up 100 yards to 2 separate operating backs. The Bruins not solely have a cell QB in Dorian Thompson-Robinson (over 600 yards dashing) however two different RBs in Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown, who each mix for 20 of the 31 whole dashing scores. Brown was out within the finale and as of some days in the past was anticipated to play. In its last three video games, the Bruins scored 42 factors or extra. Ranked within the backside half for scoring protection, mixed with NC State discovering its groove to shut the season scoring 42, 41, and 34 factors, I can solely see up.

Prediction: OVER 59.5

Nov 27, 2021; Pasadena, California, USA;   UCLA Bruins running back Zach Charbonnet (24) carries the ball for a first down against the California Golden Bears in the first half at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Nov 27, 2021; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins operating again Zach Charbonnet (24) carries the ball for a primary down in opposition to the California Golden Bears within the first half on the Rose Bowl. Necessary Credit score: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports activities

Assured Price Bowl: West Virginia vs Minnesota -5, 44.5

Out for West Virginia is WR5 Isaiah Esdale (fourth in receptions, fifth in receiving yards, one rating). An even bigger loss for the Mountaineers is RB1 Leddie Brown, 223 of the 425 dashing makes an attempt, 1,065 of the 1,535 dashing yards, and 13 of the 18 whole dashing scores. Although WV is a pass-first crew, forty eighth in passing and 99th in dashing, having Brown within the lineup has been key to WV’s wins. West Virginia is 6-0 once they rush for over 100 yards and 0-6 once they don’t. Who has been the participant to hold the crew over the 100-yard mark in these wins? It was Brown. RB2 Tony Mathis Jr. could also be succesful as he did have a single recreation dashing for 118 yards, however that was in opposition to Kansas. This can be a more durable activity.

Down its star RB, going through a Gophers protection ranked high 10 in opposition to the run, a crew that held Wisconsin to 62 dashing yards and 13 factors and Nebraska to 4.4 yards per carry and 23 factors, could also be an excessive amount of to beat. That mixed with a WV QB in Jarret Doege who has a fairly large distinction in splits, seven touchdowns to seven interceptions on the street in comparison with 12 touchdowns to 4 interceptions at dwelling, might all lend to the favourite to cowl.

Prediction: Minnesota -5


Monday, December 27

Fast Lane Bowl: Western Michigan -7 vs Nevada 56

This matchup has seen the best line motion but however for good cause. The road opened Nevada -6 with a recreation whole of 66 earlier than Nevada Wolf Pack QB Carson Robust opted out. He is among the best quarterbacks this season, rating sixth in passing yards (4,186), seventh in completion share (70 %) and sixth in passing touchdowns (36). You’ll be able to see why the road flipped. Additionally out for Nevada is WR Tory Horton, WR Justin Lockhart, WR Elijah Cooks, and TE Cole Turner. These gamers are 4th, sixth, eighth and 2nd in receptions, respectively. Mixed, they’ve accounted for 1,963 of the 4,398 receiving yards and 21 of the 37 whole receiving scores — the most important loss being Turner, who alone accounts for 10 scores.

Out for Western Michigan is WR Jaylen Corridor (second in receptions, second in receiving yards, leads in receiving common, three of 21 receiving scores) and TE Anthony Torres (solely 137 of the three,135 receiving yards and no scores). So long as WMU QB Kaleb Eleby is enjoying and has his high two operating backs and main receiver, there’s just one approach to look — to the whole.

The Broncos are high 10 in whole offense, have a balanced pass-run recreation, run a high-tempo assault and might rating. They’re ranked high 30 in touchdowns scored whereas averaging 31 factors per recreation. The Nevada offense could also be down some components however it’s the Nevada protection I’m serious about, ranked 69th in opposition to the go and 97th in opposition to the run. In opposition to different dashing groups, the Wolf Pack allowed 38 and 41 factors from Kansas State and Air Pressure giving up a median of 372 dashing yards. To passing groups, Nevada gave up 31 factors and 32 factors to Boise State and Fresno State permitting a median of 322 passing yards. WMU scored 41 factors in opposition to Pitt and closed the season scoring 41 in opposition to Northern Illinois. This can be a succesful offense.

Prediction: Western Michigan crew whole OVER 31 (Western Michigan beat Nevada, 52-24)

Saturday, December 25

Camellia Bowl: Ball State vs. Georgia State -6, 51

The opening line was Georgia State -4 and the whole at 50. After beginning the season 1-4, the Georgia State Panthers went on to complete 6-1 within the second half of the season, together with a four-point loss to Louisiana and a win over Coastal Carolina as 13-point underdogs. The Panthers, led by a dual-RB menace in Tucker Gregg and Jaymest Williams, are a top-10 dashing assault going through a Ball State protection ranked 96th in opposition to the run. The Cardinals protection is a polarizing unit, shedding 22-12 to Toledo whereas giving up 272 dashing yards, however then defeating Western Michigan 45-20 and holding the 27-ranked dashing offense to 2.5 yards per rush. Ball State was aggressive in opposition to Northern Illinois and wrecked Buffalo. Which model of the Cardinals will we get?

Cardinals QB Drew Plitt is a really succesful quarterback, although ranked simply 92nd in passing yards. Nonetheless, in 11 video games, Ball State performed half in opposition to groups ranked inside the highest 50 for passing protection. The Panthers are 104th in opposition to the go. Plitt might see some success right here. Both the Panthers roll in opposition to a horrible dashing protection or Plitt is ready to sustain through the passing recreation. Both means, factors.

Prediction: OVER 51 (Georgia State beat Ball State, 51-21)

Thursday, Dec. 23

Gasparilla Bowl: UCF vs. Florida (-7, Whole: 56.5)

Out for the Florida Gators are main go rusher Zachary Carter (eight sacks) and QB2 Anthony Richardson (fourth on the crew in dashing yards with three dashing scores). Florida beginning QB Emory Jones introduced that he would play within the bowl recreation with the intent of coming into the switch portal after.

In for the Knights is RB Isaiah Bowser, who leads the crew in dashing makes an attempt, is second in dashing yards and leads in dashing scores. Bowser has missed three consecutive video games, together with the common season finale in opposition to South Florida, however is again for the bowl recreation.

This line has ticked down from the opening variety of 8. I do know that overs are having their second within the postseason. Bowl video games via Tuesday are 9-2 to the over. Nonetheless, I can’t assist however see an underneath. For one, tempo of play. The Knights are a hundred and tenth in performs per recreation. Two, time of possession. Florida is high 30 in common time of possession. Three, scoring protection. The Gators are high 30 in opponent red-zone scoring makes an attempt and opponent red-zone scores, and high 50 in limiting touchdowns, which forces extra discipline targets.

In 5 video games this season, UCF matchups have averaged 33 factors. With an in-state aggressive flare, two run-first groups and aggressive defenses … maintain your nostril.

Choose: Underneath 56.5 (UCF beat Florida 29-17)

Frisco Soccer Basic: Miami (OH) -3 vs. North Texas, 54.5

The Imply Inexperienced actually rotated their season. Early on, North Texas tried to stay a passing crew like in 12 months’s previous. Struggling to seek out its identification, UNT began 1-6. After switching to a run-heavy offense, UNT completed fourth within the nation in dashing yards per recreation — led by DeAndre Torrey — and gained 5 straight, together with an upset victory over UTSA to finish the Roadrunners’ 11-game successful streak.

The Redhawks have confronted two groups ranked inside the highest 10 in dashing yards, shedding 23-10 to Military in a recreation the place they allowed 384 dashing yards and 6.1 yards per carry, and falling 48-47 in additional time to Kent State within the finale, giving up 303 dashing yards and 5.9 yards per carry.

The distinction between Military and North Texas: tempo. Military is 89th in performs per recreation, whereas UNT is … first. Each groups have nice offensive traces, so it will come all the way down to who can rating extra. UNT has the sting by a good margin in red-zone makes an attempt and red-zone scores. So long as Torrey stays within the lineup, I just like the Imply Inexperienced to complete out the 12 months robust.

Choose: North Texas +3 (Miami (Ohio) beat North Texas 27-14)

Wednesday, Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Missouri vs Military (-6.5, Whole: 54.5)

This matchup has seen some main line motion. The Black Knights opened as 3.5-point favorites with a complete of 59.5, and they’re the higher crew.

Choose: Military -6.5 (Military beat Missouri 24-22)

Tuesday, Dec. 21

Well-known Idaho Potato Bowl: Wyoming (-3.5) vs. Kent State (Whole: 59)

The energy of each offenses lies within the run recreation, rating ninth and twenty sixth in dashing offense, respectively. Neither crew is nice at defending the run, rating 103 and 93 in dashing yards allowed, respectively. With one opponent in widespread, I checked out every matchup in opposition to Northern Illinois — an incredible dashing offense. Wyoming gave up 244 dashing yards and 43 factors, whereas Kent State gave up 266 dashing yards and 41 factors.

Kent State is understood for having an incredible QB in Dustin Crum and a high-tempo offense that ranks high 15 in each performs per recreation and red-zone scores. What the Golden Flashes are undoubtedly not identified for is protection, rating 102nd in opponent factors per play, sixth worst in opponent red-zone scores, and backside 15 in touchdowns allowed.

Prediction: Over 59 (Wyoming beat Kent State 52-38)

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl: San Diego State (-3) vs. UTSA (Whole: 49)

This recreation has seen stay motion via zero. UTSA opened as a 2.5-point favourite however shifted to the underdog after information that main rusher Honest McCormack would declare for the draft and skip the sport. He accounted for practically 1,500 of the crew’s 2,500 dashing yards and 15 of 25 whole dashing scores. It’s undoubtedly an enormous loss.

For the Aztecs, QB Lucas Johnson will get the beginning after lacking the final two video games due to damage. The unfold could have modified, however the whole has not.

San Diego State is a run-only crew led by Greg Ball. It ranks sixtieth in dashing and one hundred and twentieth in passing, however it isn’t a threatening offense, rating 73rd in factors per play and averaging 24 factors per recreation. The energy of the UTSA protection is defending the run.

Defensively, nevertheless, SDS is high 10 in opponent factors per play, opponent red-zone scores, and touchdowns allowed, limiting groups to 19 factors per recreation.

The Roadrunners can be down their greatest offensive participant and going through among the best scoring defenses, whereas the Aztecs are a one-dimensional dashing offense going through a top-15 run protection.

Prediction: Underneath 49 (San Diego State beat UTSA 38-24)

Monday, Dec. 20

Myrtle Seashore Bowl: Outdated Dominion vs Tulsa (-8.5, Whole: 54)

Outdated Dominion had an incredible 6-6 season. That won’t sound like this system excelled however let’s do not forget that the Monarchs performed zero video games in 2020 because of the pandemic and completed 1-11 in 2019. The squad then began the season 1-6 earlier than successful 5 video games straight.

Power of schedule might come into play. Tulsa has performed some actually nice groups in Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Houston, and Cincinnati, shedding by eight factors or much less to the Cowboys and the Bearcats. The very best opponents ODU has performed had been Wake Forest, Liberty, and Western Kentucky, shedding all three by 23 factors or extra.

You’ll be able to’t run in opposition to ODU, twenty fourth in dashing protection, however you’ll be able to throw it, because it’s backside 20 in opposition to the go. Tulsa QB Davis Brin, with practically 3,000 yards and 16 touchdowns, ought to have the ability to exploit this secondary. The issue for each groups is available in turnovers. Brin has as many interceptions as he has touchdowns, whereas each groups are backside 30 in turnovers and each 60 in takeaways.

The distinction will come within the purple zone, the place the Golden Hurricane has the sting. ODU is eightieth in opponent purple zone scoring makes an attempt and eighty fifth in opponent purple zone scores, whereas Tulsa is high 20 in each. Tulsa has the higher offensive line, higher offense, higher protection and has performed a a lot more durable schedule. Key for each: Restrict the turnovers.

Prediction: Tulsa -8.5 (Tulsa beat Outdated Dominion 30-17)

Tulsa linebacker Justin Wright (30) celebrates with teammates after recovering a fumble during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Cincinnati Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Jeff Dean)

Tulsa linebacker Justin Wright (30) celebrates with teammates after recovering a fumble throughout the second half of an NCAA faculty soccer recreation in opposition to Cincinnati Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021, in Cincinnati. (AP Photograph/Jeff Dean)

Saturday, Dec. 18 Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State (-3, 67.5)

This line has seen no motion however you need to preserve tabs on the climate. Present forecast requires 15 mph winds with 24 mph gusts, cloudy with 60% probability of showers. The Hilltoppers have a stud QB in Bailey Zappe however what can occur if you find yourself a one-dimensional offense? An excellent opposing protection is aware of recreation plan. WKU is first in passing yards however 124th in dashing, whereas the Mountaineers are extra balanced, sixty fourth in passing and thirty eighth in dashing. App State, nevertheless, can be with out receiver Corey Sutton, who leads in receptions, receiving yards and receiving scores. Happily for App State, WRs Malik Williams and Thomas Hennigan are fairly comparable. These two might want to step up as a result of the weak spot of this Western Kentucky crew is the secondary, a hundred and tenth in passing yards allowed.

With a powerful run recreation between RBs Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples, that may open up the passing recreation for App State. The Mountaineers three losses are from Miami and Louisiana twice, two actually strong groups. App State does have a top-20 protection however key for this matchup can be turnovers. Each squads are within the backside half for giveaways whereas each are high 35 for takeaways.

For me, the reply is available in resumes. App State has proven it could actually defeat or be aggressive in opposition to passing offenses, whereas Western Kentucky has struggled in opposition to groups that run the ball successfully.

Prediction: App State -3 (Western Kentucky beat Appalachian State 59-38)

PUBG Cellular New Mexico Bowl: UTEP vs. Fresno State (-11.5, 51)

The Bulldogs can be with out their head coach in Kalen DeBoer, now with Washington. In to switch him is Jeff Tedford, who served as Fresno’s head coach from 2016 via 2019 earlier than resigning for well being causes however not till the 2022 season. Fresno QB Jake Haener had initially entered the switch portal however then withdrew from the portal to stick with the Bulldogs.

Between all these adjustments, cash has are available in on the Miners, dropping this unfold from the 13-point opening line. The conundrum is that Fresno State interim head coach Lee Marks introduced that he wouldn’t identify a starter publicly earlier than the sport. Haener will now be competing for the beginning with freshman Jaylen Henderson and redshirt freshman Logan Fife.

Not understanding which quarterback can be behind middle actually makes handicapping a recreation tough. Haener has thrown for 32 touchdowns and over 3,800 yards, so it might be nice to see him end out the season. UTEP could have a top-25 protection however it’s additionally been in some high-scoring affairs, permitting 54 factors from Boise, 42 factors from UAB, and 44 from UTSA.

With Haener, you may have two pass-first groups with neither protection in a position to apply quarterback strain (each 81st and 62nd in sack price), with weak secondaries, whereas in a position to rack up factors and permit scores.

Prediction: OVER 51, contingent on Haener beginning (Haener began, Fresno State beat UTEP 31-24)

It’s conditions like this that make for a superb reminder that alternatives might be had with in-game wagering.

Radiance Applied sciences Independence Bowl: UAB vs. BYU (-7, 54.5)

One other climate recreation to watch. Forecasts name for 13 mph winds, gusts of 20 mph, and 65% probability of rain with a potential thunderstorm in Shreveport, Louisiana. The Cougars completed with a 10-2 season report and as an alternative of touchdown a top-tier bowl recreation, BYU must play in Louisiana effectively earlier than the vacations. You’ll be able to’t quantify motivation so I gained’t use that in any of my predictions.

What I do know is that UAB main RB DeWane McBride appears extremely unlikely to play. He was carted off the sector in UAB’s 42-25 win over UTEP within the season dwelling finale early within the second quarter. McBride led the crew in carries and dashing yards, whereas accounting for 12 of the 26 whole dashing scores. Subsequent man up, Jermaine Brown Jr., stuffed in properly with 88 dashing yards and three scores in opposition to the Miners. Depth, nevertheless, might be the problem as RB3 Lucious Stanley left for the switch portal.

For BYU, WR2 Gunner Romney could miss the bowl after lacking the regular-season finale. Romney is third in receptions, second in receiving yards, however accounts for simply three of the 26 whole receiving touchdowns.

I’ll be trustworthy, I don’t really feel assured with this one. Not having McBride places a wrench in issues. I see a UAB protection that shut down a North Texas dashing offense in opposition to a BYU crew that struggled in opposition to a run-heavy Baylor offense. BYU is high 35 in purple zone scores per recreation, whereas each are exterior the highest 50 for limiting opponent scores. BYU can rack up some factors, whereas each have been weak to permitting scores. BYU is just like UTSA statistically, balanced offense with a reasonably common protection. UAB is just like Baylor statistically, a run-heavy offense with a superb run protection. In each matchups, BYU in opposition to Baylor and UAB in opposition to UTSA, factors had been scored.

Prediction: OVER 54.5 (UAB beat BYU 31-28)

Lending Tree Bowl: Japanese Michigan vs. Liberty (-9, 58.5)

Saturday is simply not wanting like a superb day for soccer so far as the climate is worried. In Cellular, Alabama, there’s a 55-65 % probability of rain however with minimal wind, 6 mph with gusts of 14 mph.

Liberty closed the season with three straight losses together with its season finale in opposition to Military. The Flames had been with out their high security in Javon Scruggs, third on the crew with whole tackles and co-leader in passes defended. Eagles QB Ben Bryant is twenty seventh in passing yards, although 61st in yards per go try with a 7.6 common. Liberty is ranked high 5 in opposition to the go, besides the Flames have solely performed one crew inside the highest 50 for passing yards, Ole Miss. Liberty misplaced to the Rebels, 27-14, giving up 324 passing yards and 12.0 yards per go.

The EMU protection is ranked 112th in opposition to the run, permitting 210 dashing yards or extra to 5 separate squads, together with 236 to Central Michigan in a 31-10 loss to shut out the season. CMU is kind of similar to the Flames offensively, each high 55 in dashing yards and yards per rush try.

This can be a great spot for NFL draft prospect Malik Willis to shut out the season robust after scoring 16 factors or much less in three straight video games. Willis, mixed with a trio of RBs in Joshua Mack, T.J. Inexperienced, and Shedro Louis, ought to have a discipline day in opposition to the Eagles’ run protection to regulate the clock. Bryant generally is a passing menace however with an offensive line that ranks backside 15 in QB safety (sacked 38 instances this season), ought to have hassle getting the ball off in opposition to a top-20 go rush in Liberty. If EMU does get downfield, Liberty is high 35 in opponent purple zone makes an attempt allowed and high 20 in opponent purple zone scores allowed.

Prediction: Liberty -9, UNDER 58.5 (Liberty beat Japanese Michigan 56-20)

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Offered by Stifel: Utah State vs. Oregon State (-7.5, 67.5)

This whole has ticked up from the opening line of 65. This might be a one-sided victory for both aspect. The Beavers are high 15 in dashing yards, led by B.J. Baylor, who has practically 1,300 dashing yards this season with 13 scores. The Aggies allowed 362 yards of dashing offense to Wyoming (misplaced 44-17) just some weeks in the past, 437 dashing yards to Air Pressure (gained 49-45) and 221 to BYU (misplaced 34-20). However, Utah State has a potent passing offense run by QB Logan Bonner, who’s twelfth in passing yards with 36 landing passes. The Beavers gave up 313 passing yards to Purdue (misplaced 30-21) and 355 to USC (gained 45-27). I level these out to point out that there’s no consistency.

Whereas others need to the OVER, I’ll look to the UNDER. Utah State can run a quick offense, high 10 in performs per recreation, however not essentially rack up factors shortly. The Aggies are 52nd in factors per play and 66th in purple zone scores per recreation. In the meantime, the Beavers are a a lot slower-paced dashing offense, high 50 in time of possession, 89th in performs per recreation, with each excelling in extending the drives, high 35 in third down conversions.

If I’m taking an OVER, I need to see either side going forwards and backwards. Both the Beavers will management the sport on the bottom or the Aggies’ passing offense can be an excessive amount of for Oregon State to deal with.

Prediction: UNDER 67.5 (Utah State beat Oregon State 24-13)

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana -5 vs. Marshall, 55.5

There’s some anticipated climate however happily that gained’t disrupt this matchup as it is going to be performed within the Caesars Superdome, dwelling of the New Orleans Saints. This whole has gone up from the opening line of 52.5. The Ragin’ Cajuns can be with out head coach Billy Napier, who’s now with Florida. They’ll as an alternative be coached by Louisiana co-OC Michael Desormeaux. Staying inner and selling from inside is a great transfer because it might make for a neater transition and retains issues fluid.

Louisiana’s greatest offense: the run recreation. It is twenty fourth in dashing yards and twenty eighth in yards per rush try with a trio of RBs that account for practically 2,200 of the two,495 whole dashing yards and 25 of the 31 whole dashing scores. Chris Smith leads in makes an attempt/yards and is second in scores, is out on account of a “banged-up” knee, coach Desormeaux introduced Wednesday night time. He leads in makes an attempt by simply 10 and leads in yards by 71. Louisiana has depth and stability, it’s not only a one-man present. Nonetheless, not having Smith remains to be an enormous loss.

Having a totally wholesome RB unit would have been helpful in opposition to a Marshall run protection ranked 108th. In opposition to run-heavy groups, Marshall misplaced to UAB, App State, and Center Tennessee, although all had been by seven factors or much less.

The energy of each defenses lies within the purple zone. They’re each high 30 in opponent purple zone scoring makes an attempt and high 20 in purple zone scores allowed, whereas additionally rating high 45 in forcing turnovers. With Smith within the lineup, I might lay the factors with Louisiana. With out him, I’ll look to the protection to step up and preserve factors restricted.

Prediction: UNDER 55.5 (Louisiana beat Marshall 36-21)

Friday, Dec. 17

Bahamas Bowl: Center Tennessee vs. Toledo (-10.5, 50.5)

Each groups are high 55 in whole protection, however Toledo can put up factors. Regardless of being No. 1 in pressured turnovers, MTSU nonetheless managed to surrender 35 factors to Virginia Tech, 42 to Charlotte, 41 to Liberty, and 48 to Western Kentucky. The Blue Raiders will not be resistant to giving up scoring alternatives. The Rockets is probably not an explosive offense, rating 73rd in performs per recreation, however Toledo is environment friendly. It ranks second in takeaways, averages 33 factors per recreation, is high 25 in factors per play and high 35 in offensive touchdowns scored per recreation, and in its final 4 video games performed, it has scored 49 or extra in three of them. Granted, it was throughout MACtion, however this Toledo offense is succesful. It seems the climate might play a job with 14 mph winds and gusts as much as 28 mph, which might clarify why the whole has ticked down from the opening line of 53.

The benefit of Toledo: It might probably run the ball, rating high 35 in dashing yards — in contrast to MTSU, which ranks 97th. Toledo RB Bryant Koback, with 1,274 dashing yards and 15 floor scores, might have an enormous recreation. In case you’re in search of a choose on the whole, you’ll be able to take heed to my reasoning for liking the OVER on 50.5.

Prediction: Toledo -10 (Center Tennessee beat Toledo 31-24)

Tailgreeter Treatment Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina (-10.5, 63.5)

The Chanticleers have did not cowl practically each double-digit unfold this 12 months, ending 1-6 ATS in its final seven video games. A number of the highlights:

  • 17-point favorites in opposition to Troy; a 35-28 win

  • 12.5-point favorites to Georgia State; a 42-40 loss

  • 24.5-point favorites to Texas State; a 35-21 win

  • 14.5-point favorites to South Alabama; a 27-21 win

In opposition to the one different MAC crew Coastal has confronted this 12 months, it gained, 28-25, over Buffalo as a 14-point favourite.

NIU however is 8-4 ATS and has confirmed to be a well-coached unit. Within the MAC championship recreation, the plan was executed completely. To maintain the ball out of the fingers of Kent State QB Dustin Crum, the Huskies ran and ran and ran to a 41-23 win, producing 266 yards on 61 dashing makes an attempt and controlling the ball for 40 minutes. The Huskies have a superb offensive line and are able to operating an identical recreation plan in opposition to a crew that’s resistant to masking huge spreads down the stretch.

Prediction: Northern Illinois +10.5 (Coastal Carolina beat Northern Illinois 47-41)



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