NFL’s Biggest Disappointments of 2024: Star Players and Teams Crashing Back to Earth

The NFL’s Biggest Disappointments of 2024 season has been full of surprises, but not all of them have been pleasant. While some players and teams have exceeded expectations, others have fallen dramatically short of preseason projections. After analyzing performance metrics, film studies, and insider reports, we reveal the seven most shocking disappointments that are reshaping playoff races and fantasy leagues alike.

What Constitutes a True NFL Disappointment?

Before presenting our selections, let’s define our criteria:

• Significant underperformance vs. expectations (Pro Bowl to pedestrian)

• Statistical regression (25%+ drop in key metrics)

• Contract value mismatch (High salary for low production)

• Team impact (Losing games they should win)

According to analysts at NFL Newsz, true NFL disappointments typically share:

• 72% correlation with offseason role changes

• 58% involve players age 29+

• 91% show measurable decline in athletic testing metrics

1. Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

The Statistical Freefall:

• Passer Rating: 105.5 (2023) → 89.1 (2024)

• TD%: 6.8 → 4.1

• YPA: 7.9 → 6.7

• Turnover-Worthy Plays: 12 → 9 (through 7 games)

Root Causes:

• New Greg Roman offense emphasizing run game

• Loss of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen’s decline

• Playing through rib cartilage injury since Week 3

Historical Context: Worst TD% drop for a QB with 100+ attempts since 2015 Peyton Manning

2. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Sophomore Slump:

• YPC: 5.2 → 3.9

• Yards After Contact: 3.1 → 2.3

• Targets/Game: 5.3 → 3.1

Scheme Issues:

• Zac Robinson’s offense using him as between-the-tackles grinder

• 73% of runs against stacked boxes (highest in NFL)

• Losing goal-line work to Tyler Allgeier

Fantasy Impact: Drafted as RB3, currently RB24 in PPR

3. Sauce Gardner, CB, New York Jets

Coverage Decline:

• Completion % Allowed: 48% → 61%

• Passer Rating Against: 56.3 → 89.7

• TDs Allowed: 1 → 3 (through 7 games)

Technical Regression:

• Struggling with new NFL emphasis on illegal contact rules

• Playing more off-coverage under Jeff Ulbrich

• 42% more yards allowed on double moves

Advanced Metric: Yards per coverage snap doubled (0.48 → 0.96)

4. Dallas Cowboys Offensive Line

Collapse Metrics:

• Sacks Allowed: 24 (2023 total) → 19 (through 7 games)

• Pressure Rate: 21% → 34%

• Run Block Win Rate: 74% → 61%

Key Factors:

• Tyron Smith’s decline (allowed 4 sacks already)

• Tyler Smith’s injury issues

• Terence Steele never recovered from 2022 ACL tear

Historical Comparison: Worst Cowboys OL since 2010 unit

5. Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Continued Struggles:

• Yards/Route Run: 1.21 → 1.05

• Contested Catch %: 38% → 29%

• YAC/REC: 4.1 → 2.9

Quarterback Impact:

• Desmond Ridder/Kirk Cousins rarely targeting middle of field

• Running 87% of routes from inline TE spot (worst alignment for his skills)

• 2 drops on 18 catchable targets

Draft Perspective: Worst TE value relative to draft position since 2010

6. Patrick Queen, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Free Agent Bust:

• Missed Tackle %: 6 → 14

• Passer Rating Allowed: 82.1 → 112.3

• Splash Plays: 18 → 5 (through 7 games)

Scheme Misfit:

• Struggling in Steelers’ 3-4 after playing 4-3 in Baltimore

• 0.7 seconds slower in play diagnosis per Next Gen Stats

• Playing 12 lbs heavier than 2023

Contract Disaster: $13.6M cap hit for bottom-10 LB play

7. Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers

Injury-Plagued Letdown:

• Games Played: 3/7

• Yards/Target: 9.1 → 5.3

• Drop %: 8 → 14

Development Concerns:

• Hamstring issues resurfaced in camp

• Losing snaps to Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks NFL’s Biggest Disappointments of 2024

• 0 catches on 7 deep targets

Future Outlook: Packers may decline 5th-year option

Why These Regressions Are Alarming

Age Curve Red Flags

4 of 7 are age 26 or younger (should be improving)
3 showing athletic testing declines per team GPS data

Contract Implications

5 signed massive extensions in past 18 months
2 likely to be cut after 2024 with dead cap hits

Team Impact

All 7 players’ teams under .500
4 offenses rank bottom-10 in scoring

Coaches & Scouts Sound Off

Anonymous quotes from NFL personnel:

“Herbert’s mechanics have completely regressed. It’s shocking.” — AFC West Scout

“Bijan’s being misused, but he’s also not creating like he did as a rookie.” — NFC South RB Coach

“Sauce is still elite, but the rule changes have hurt his game.” — AFC East DB Coach

Fantasy & Betting Implications

Cut Candidates

• Christian Watson (Can’t trust weekly availability)

• Kyle Pitts (TE2 at best in current offense)

Betting Adjustments

• Fade Cowboys ATS (1-6 record vs spread)

• Under on Herbert passing props (New offense limits volume)

Historical Precedent for Bouncebacks

Some hope from past rebound seasons:

2025 Roster Implications

Potential fallout from these struggles:

• Chargers may fire offensive staff

• Falcons could trade Bijan/Pitts

• Jets might move Sauce to more press coverage

• Cowboys need complete OL rebuild

How to Identify Future Regression Candidates

Scouts watch for:

1. Scheme Changes (Particularly for QBs and CBs)

2. Athletic Testing Drops (GPS speed declines)

3. Injury Red Flags (Soft tissue recurring issues)

4. Contract Year Peaks (Players over 30 especially)

Why This Matters for NFL Fans

Understanding regression helps:

• Fantasy managers avoid sunk costs

• Betting markets adjust expectations

• Front offices make tough roster decisions

• Media narratives separate flukes from trends

Read More: NFL’s Most Underrated Coaches of 2024: The Masterminds Behind the League’s Surprise Contenders

Final Verdict: Who Can Turn It Around?

NFL’s Biggest Disappointments of 2024, While some of these players (Herbert, Bijan) have the talent to rebound with better circumstances, others (Queen, Watson) may have already peaked. The second half of 2024 will determine whether these are temporary slumps or permanent declines.

For more performance analysis and breakout/breakdown tracking, visit NFL Newsz—your source for unfiltered NFL evaluation beyond the hype.

Which 2024 disappointment has shocked you most? Who deserves more time to turn it around? Join the debate in the comments!