NFL Week 5 picks, odds: Browns and Colts play thriller in Cleveland, Dolphins stun favored 49ers


I do not normally throw round statements like this except I imply it, so I am simply going to say it: The NFC East is trash. By way of the primary 4 weeks of the season, the NFC East race has by some means was the soccer equal of Joe Unique: It is a whole catastrophe that I can not take my eyes off of. 

Your complete division must be quarantined, and ideally for 3 months, simply so we do not have to observe them play anymore. The division has a complete of three wins to date this 12 months and the one cause they even have that many is as a result of a kind of wins got here in a recreation that concerned two NFC East groups.

Going into Week 4, the Philadelphia Eagles have been WINLESS, and by some means, they’re now in first place. I am virtually embarrassed to confess that my NFC Tremendous Bowl choose (the Cowboys) got here out of this division. In fact, the one upside for me is that in the event you play within the division, that signifies that you get to play six video games in opposition to the division, so I am now formally banking on the Cowboys to win the division with a 7-9 report.    

To rejoice how dangerous the NFC East has been, I am selecting the complete division to lose this week. Really, I am selecting certainly one of them to win, however solely as a result of there’s one recreation this week that entails two groups from the division. 

So which NFC East staff am I selecting to win in Week 5? Let’s get to the picks and discover out. 

Really, earlier than we get to the picks, here is a fast reminder that you would be able to take a look at the weekly picks from each NFL professional by clicking right here, however you needn’t click on over this week, as a result of we now have extra vital issues to go over proper now, like why you need to join the Choose Six Podcast e-newsletter that we now have right here at 

Based mostly on my unscientific analysis, I’ve discovered that roughly 53% of the individuals who learn this picks column want they may get an e mail from me each day. Effectively, NOW YOU CAN. I have been put accountable for the Choose Six Publication, which covers all issues NFL. I do not know why anybody would put me accountable for something, however it occurred, and now, you may hear from me 5 days per week. All you need to do is click on right here and subscribe. When you join, I will be filling your inbox with one e mail per day the place I will be concerning each NFL-related subject I can consider. 

Though I will be making the foray into the world of newsletters this week, don’t fret, I am going to nonetheless be on the Choose Six Podcast, which is our day by day NFL podcast right here at For the remainder of the 2020 season, I will be becoming a member of host Will Brinson three days per week (Monday, Tuesday and Friday). 

You may take heed to Tuesday’s episode beneath. The rationale you are going to need to hear is as a result of we spent far more time than we most likely ought to have debating whether or not or not the Falcons will really hearth Dan Quinn in the course of the season. 

If you do not have time to hear now, be certain to click on right here so you may subscribe and hear later. 

Alright, that is sufficient self-promotion for one week, let’s get to the picks. 

NFL Week 5 Picks

Buffalo (4-0) at Tennessee (3-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Level unfold: Payments -1

I am undecided what the perfect factor about dwelling in Nashville is for me, however I are you able to that it is undoubtedly not the truth that the Titans have turned the town into floor zero for the NFL’s first coronavirus outbreak. It is just like the Titans took the NFL’s COVID-19 protocols and threw them out the window. I am undecided which window, but when I discover out, I am going to let you recognize. A complete of 16 members of the group have examined constructive for COVID over the previous two week, which is mainly 16 greater than virtually each different staff is coping with. 

Because of the circumstances, this recreation is certainly probably the most fascinating one on the schedule this week. Not solely is it the one recreation in Week 5 that options two undefeated groups enjoying in opposition to one another, however there’s additionally a component of thriller concerned as a result of I do not know what the Titans are going to seem like. I imply, they have been banned from their apply facility for greater than per week now, which implies they have not been in a position to maintain a single on-field apply since not less than Sept. 26. 

On one hand, that could possibly be benefit, as a result of it means everybody’s going to be contemporary. Alternatively, the offense could possibly be somewhat rusty after taking greater than per week off. In fact, if there’s one quarterback within the NFL who most likely would not have to fret about getting rusty, it is Ryan Tannehill, and that is as a result of 90% of his job is to simply flip round and hand the ball off to Derrick Henry. That is a rust-proof job. 

The issue for the Titans is that attempting to cease Josh Allen looks as if it could be barely troublesome to do with none precise apply. Mainly, I feel the Payments are going to have the ability to transfer up and down the sector on Tennessee’s protection and though I really feel just like the Titans offense will in a position to maintain issues attention-grabbing, I do not assume they are going to have the ability to outscore Buffalo in a shootout. I am selecting the Payments to win although it means all of my neighbors are going to hate me (My neighbors anticipate me to choose the Titans each week). In fact, I have not actually been hanging out with my neighbors because the pandemic began, so I do not actually care what they assume. 

The choose: Payments 30-27 over Titans

What picks are you able to make with confidence in Week 5? And which Tremendous Bowl contender goes down laborious? Go to SportsLine to see which NFL groups are successful greater than 50 % of simulations, all from the mannequin that’s up over $7,300 on its top-rated picks

Jacksonville (1-3) at Houston (0-4)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Level unfold: Texans -6.5

Houston, we now have an issue. Really, examine that, it seems that Houston has mounted its downside. Girls and gents, after simply 4 weeks, we lastly have our first firing of the season: Invoice O’Brien is out in Houston.  

The Texans are 0-4 this 12 months and a giant cause for that’s as a result of their common supervisor removed their finest offensive talent participant in the course of the offseason, their head coach stored making horrible choices and their offensive play-caller could not work out find out how to transfer the ball on a nasty Vikings protection in Week 4. The Texans responded to this by firing all of these individuals this week, which wasn’t really that arduous since O’Brien held each job. 

Now that O’Brien is out, I feel the logical subsequent transfer for the Texans must be to petition the NFL to undo each commerce that he made whereas he was coach, as a result of I am fairly certain they got here out on the shedding finish of each single deal. 

From the sound of it, O’Brien wasn’t too widespread in Houston. When you want an instance of why O’Brien wasn’t widespread, I feel it was due to his pleasant character. 

If somebody ever writes a e book on find out how to NOT run a corporation, I am guessing that O’Brien might be featured prominently. O’Brien mainly mortgaged the staff’s future in order that they might be good this season, however the issue with that’s that they have not been good. 

Watching the Texans over the previous two weeks, it appears like a few of the gamers had type of mentally checked out on O’Brien. Now that he is gone, I feel we’d see them mentally examine again in. I can’t be shocked in any respect if the Texans come out this week and beat the Jaguars by 45 factors.

The choose: Texans 34-24 over Jaguars

Miami (1-3) at San Francisco (2-2)

4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
Level unfold: 49ers -8 

Generally I get somewhat loopy with my picks and this one might be going to qualify. The 49ers look like the plain choose right here till you understand that everybody on their roster is injured, and though that may sound like an exaggeration, it’s not. 

To be trustworthy, I used to be shocked they even had sufficient gamers to area a staff in opposition to the Eagles on Sunday. 

When you’ve misplaced monitor of what number of accidents the 49ers are coping with, here is a quick abstract: Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas have already been misplaced for the season. There is a good likelihood that Jimmy GaroppoloRaheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman and Dee Ford will not play this week. Additionally, the 49ers have three cornerbacks (Richard Sherman, Emmanuel Moseley and Ahkello Witherspoon) who won’t have the ability to swimsuit up, and that is not even each injured participant. As a matter of reality, now that I am desirous about it, it most likely would have been a lot simpler to simply identify the gamers who aren’t injured. 

Alternatively, you’ve the Dolphins, who could be the perfect dangerous staff within the NFL. Is {that a} praise? I do not know. I imply, would you fairly be probably the most engaging ugly particular person or the ugliest engaging particular person? There are undoubtedly upsides to each, and no, I had no thought this choose was going to show into an existential debate with myself, type of like the talk Brian Flores is having with himself about who ought to begin on Sunday. 

I am not an NFL coach, however beginning your rookie quarterback in a recreation the place you need to fly throughout the nation to play the defending NFC champion looks as if a nasty thought. If I am Flores, I am undoubtedly beginning Ryan Fitzpatrick this week. 

The factor concerning the Dolphins is that they’ve simply sufficient expertise to place a scare into each staff they play. They LED the Payments within the fourth quarter in Week 2. They have been solely down two factors to the Seahawks within the fourth quarter on Sunday. They have been solely down three factors to the Patriots in the course of the fourth quarter of their Week 1 recreation in New England. This Dolphins staff has been in a position to keep aggressive with good groups and that is when these groups are wholesome. The 49ers are usually not wholesome, so I am taking the Dolphins in an upset. 

The choose: Dolphins 20-17 over 49ers. 

Indianapolis (3-1) at Cleveland (3-1)

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Level unfold: Colts -2.5

When you’ve watched any Colts video games this season, you then already understand how this recreation goes to play out: The opposite staff will not have the ability to rating on Indy’s protection and the Colts will get all of the factors they want from their kicker. 

In what may go down as the best kicking stat of all-time, Rodrigo Blankenship has single-handedly outscored Indy’s opponent in each recreation the Colts have gained this 12 months, which does not even appear potential, however the truth is, has really occurred. 

The loopy factor about that image is that I feel I created a kicker who regarded precisely like Rodrigo throughout a drunk night time of Madden again in faculty. That man gained me each recreation and now Rodrigo is doing it in actual life. 

Based mostly on how the season has gone to date, the Colts do not even have to convey their offense to Cleveland this week. So long as their protection and Blankenship each present up for this recreation, Indy is assured to win. 

Defensively, the Colts have been probably the greatest groups within the NFL via the primary 4 weeks. Really, with regards to factors allowed, they have not been ONE of the perfect, they have been THE finest. By way of 4 weeks, the Colts are solely surrendering 14 factors per recreation. To place that in perspective, the Browns have crushed three groups which have have surrendered 24.8 factors per recreation (Bengals), 28 factors per recreation (Washington) and 36.5 factors per recreation (Cowboys). Mainly, I feel the Browns offense goes to get a actuality examine on this recreation and never the type of actuality examine the place you study an vital life lesson that in the end results in a happier life. Though I am selecting the Colts, I feel the Browns are going to be outscore Indy’s kicker, which is nearly as spectacular as successful. 

The choose: Colts 23-20 over Browns

Lock of the Week

L.A. Chargers (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Level unfold: Saints -7.5

Look guys, I am not going to lie, after watching Drew Brees play over the early a part of the season I believed he was completely washed up, however because it seems, I might need been improper. I feel what really occurred is that Brees merely performed like a 41-year-old man who did not get a preseason, which is sensible, as a result of he’s the truth is a 41-year-old man who did not get a preseason. While you’re that previous, you want all of the warm-up time you will get and Brees did not get that this 12 months because of the pandemic.

The opposite clarification for Brees’ early season struggles is that this occurs EVERY SINGLE YEAR and I simply determined to disregard that reality. When you have a look at the Saints previous few seasons, there is a common sample: They appear to wrestle in September earlier than destroying everybody of their path as soon as October begins. 

Though I hate analysis, I made a decision to do some for this choose and what I discovered is that the Saints are actually unbeatable in October. Since Week 8 of the 2016 season, the Saints have gained 13 STRAIGHT video games performed within the month of October they usually’ve scored a mean of 30 factors in these video games. Now, I do know what you are pondering Saints followers, and I utterly agree: They need to transfer the Tremendous Bowl to October. Simply kidding. I do not need that. 

To place the Saints’ ridiculous streak in perspective, I will use a pleasant spherical quantity: 20. Of their previous 20 September video games, the Saints are 8-12. Of their previous 20 October video games, they’re 18-2. That is an insane distinction and does appear to point that possibly they’re only a slow-starting staff. Effectively, guess what, I am additionally a slow-starter. I did not study to learn till I used to be 14 and I did not get my driver’s license till I used to be 26. OK, these aren’t true, however I am nonetheless selecting the Saints. 

The choose: Saints 31-23 over Chargers
Lock of the week report:
 5-1 straight-up, 5-1 in opposition to the unfold

NFL Week 5 picks: All the remaining

Panthers 30-23 over Falcons 
Buccaneers 24-17 over Bears
Steelers 30-20 over Eagles
Chiefs 34-20 over Raiders
Cardinals 23-16 over Jets
Rams 30-17 over Washington
Ravens 27-20 over Bengals
Cowboys 38-27 over Giants
Patriots 24-16 over Broncos
Seahawks 30-27 over Vikings

BYES: Lions, Packers

Final Week

Greatest choose: Final week, I predicted that the Seahawks would beat the Dolphins 31-24, and GUESS WHAT HAPPENED? The Seahawks beat the Dolphins 31-23, and I’ve to say, I feel I now know what contestants on the “The Worth Is Proper” really feel like after they miss the precise worth of a Showcase Showdown bid by one greenback. It is excruciating. This hurts greater than any of my missed picks from final week. I used to be ONE POINT away from predicting the precise remaining rating. That is like lacking out on $1 million within the lottery since you bought one quantity improper in your ticket.

Some day, I will go on “The Worth Is Proper” and if I get to the Showcase Showdown, I am going to let you recognize which one is definitely extra painful: Being one level off on the rating prediction for an NFL recreation or shedding out on a Showcase Showdown price $30,000 as a result of I bid over the precise worth by one greenback. 

Worst choose: The Cowboys beating the Browns was certainly one of my “Locks” for Week 4 and I am undecided in the event you noticed the sport, however, um, the Cowboys did not win. It is virtually ironic that I made the Cowboys certainly one of my “locks” as a result of I feel somebody locked their protection in a room earlier than the sport. At the very least that is my idea. I imply, that is solely manner I can clarify why the Cowboys protection did not present up on Sunday. The Cleveland Browns piled up greater than 500 yards of whole offense! I believed for certain I might see a speaking cat earlier than I noticed the Browns rack up 500 yards on somebody, however right here we’re. 

Anyway, I feel the ethical of the story going ahead is to by no means make an NFC East staff the lock of the week. 

Picks report

Straight up in Week 4: 9-6
SU total: 41-21-1

In opposition to the unfold in Week 4: 6-9
ATS total: 30-32-1

Yow will discover John Breech on Fb or Twitter and if he is not doing a kind of issues, he is most likely busy writing the e-newsletter he is now accountable for, which is why you ought to subscribe by clicking right here.



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