NFL Strength of 2024 NFL Schedule: Which Teams Got Lucky?

The release of the 2024 NFL schedule brought excitement – and some groans – as teams discovered their paths to the playoffs. While talent and coaching matter most, a favorable schedule can be the difference between a Super Bowl run and missing the postseason entirely.

In this exclusive 2024 NFL strength of schedule breakdown, we’ll analyze:

✔ Easiest schedules (teams that caught major breaks)
✔ Hardest slates (teams facing brutal gauntlets)
✔ Surprise contenders that might emerge
✔ Playoff implications based on schedule difficulty

Using advanced metrics from Pro Football Focus and ESPN’s FPI, we’ve crunched the numbers to reveal which teams truly got screwed by the schedule makers – and which contenders got a free pass to January football.

How NFL Strength of Schedule is Calculated

Before diving into the rankings, it’s important to understand how schedule difficulty is measured:

1. Opponent Win-Loss Records (2023 Season)

   • Based on last year’s results (though teams change year-to-year)

2. Projected Team Strength (2024 Forecasts)

   • Factors in offseason moves, draft picks, and coaching changes

3. Schedule Timing & Context

   • Bye weeks, short-week games, travel miles, and weather factors

Using these metrics, here are the biggest winners and losers of the 2024 NFL schedule.

5 Teams With the EASIEST 2024 Schedules

1. Atlanta Falcons (Projected SOS: .471)

• Why They’re Lucky:

  • Only THREE games vs 2023 playoff teams

  • Get Panthers twice (easiest NFL opponent)

  • Late bye week (Week 12) helps playoff push

• Make-or-Break Stretch: Weeks 14-18 (Bucs x2, Cowboys, Chiefs)

 For more Falcons coverage, visit NFL Newsz

2. Chicago Bears (.483)

• Rookie QB Gift: Caleb Williams avoids many elite defenses

• Soft Start: Texans, Colts, Jaguars in first 5 weeks

• London Game: Could be neutral-site advantage vs Jags

3. Indianapolis Colts (.486)

• Anthony Richardson Boost: Faces 5 bottom-10 defenses

• Weak Division: Texans only real threat in AFC South

• Late Bye: Week 14 helps playoff timing

4. New York Giants (.489)

• Draft Pick Saver: Early games vs Panthers, Vikings, Bengals

• No Cold Weather Games until December

• Eli Manning Jersey Retirement Game: Could spark upset vs Cowboys

5. Carolina Panthers (.491)

• Bryce Young Bounceback Chance: Faces 7 bottom-12 defenses

• Germany Game: Neutral site vs Giants helps

• Avoid Chiefs/Bills/Ravens in interconference

5 Teams With the HARDEST 2024 Schedules

1. Kansas City Chiefs (Projected SOS: .572)

• Brutal Stretch:

  • Weeks 1-6: Ravens, Bengals, Saints, Chargers, Bills

  • 7 games vs 2023 playoff teams

• Super Bowl Tax: League loves challenging the champs

 Latest Chiefs news at NFL Newsz

2. Baltimore Ravens (.563)

• Murderers’ Row:

  • Face Chiefs, Cowboys, Eagles, Bucs, Bengals x2

  • 5 primetime games = extra pressure

• Late Bye: Week 14 could hurt playoff prep

3. Buffalo Bills (.554)

• AFC East Gauntlet:

  • Dolphins (x2), Jets (x2), plus NFC North & AFC West

  • 6,000+ travel miles (most in NFL)

• Josh Allen’s Test: Faces 5 top-7 defenses from 2023

4. Cincinnati Bengals (.541)

• Early Nightmare:

  • Weeks 1-5: Patriots, Chiefs, Commanders, Panthers, Ravens

• Joe Burrow’s Health: Tough schedule if he’s not 100%

5. Philadelphia Eagles (.533)

• Prove-It Season:

  • Face 7 playoff teams including Ravens, Bengals, Cowboys x2

  • 3-game road trip (Weeks 12-14) could sink season

3 Surprise Teams That Could Overachieve

1. Las Vegas Raiders

• Soft Start: Chargers, Rams, Panthers in first 5 weeks

• AFC West Advantage: Chiefs are only elite team

2. Houston Texans

• C.J. Stroud Friendly: Faces 5 bottom-10 pass defenses

• Weak Division: Colts/Jags aren’t scary

3. Minnesota Vikings

• JJ McCarthy Boost: Early games vs Giants, Packers, Texans

• London Game: Could spark season vs Jets

Playoff Implications: Who Benefits Most?

• NFC South Winner (Falcons/Saints) gets easiest path

• AFC West could send 3 teams thanks to Chiefs’ tough slate

• Wild Card Watch: Bills/Ravens may be fighting for one spot

Read More: 2024 NFL Schedule PDF: Download & Print the Full Season Calendar

Final Verdict: Who Really Got Screwed?

While the Chiefs and Ravens face brutal schedules, history shows elite teams overcome tough slates. The real losers are middle-tier teams like the Packers and Steelers who got playoff-caliber schedules without playoff-caliber rosters.

Meanwhile, the Falcons and Bears have no excuses – their paths to January football are paved. Will they take advantage?

 For daily NFL analysis, visit NFL Newsz