Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are off to a 2-1 start and will look to stay in the NFL playoff picture on Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers. It’s an early 1 p.m. ET kickoff for the Chargers, something they’ll have to get used to since it’s the first of six early starts for the West Coast team. The Buccaneers were originally favored by 4.5 in the opening Week 4 NFL odds, but they’re all the way up to seven-point favorites in the latest Week 4 NFL spreads from William Hill.
Philip Rivers is another veteran quarterback who left his longtime team in the offseason. His Colts are 2.5-point road favorites over the undefeated Bears in a game that was moved to the late afternoon window. The Colts were dominant against the Jets last week, but is this one of the Week 4 NFL Vegas lines you should target? All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up over $7,500 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five years ago.
It’s off to a strong 7-2 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 4 on an incredible 103-67 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Top NFL predictions for Week 4
One of the top Week 4 NFL predictions the model recommends: The Cowboys (-4.5) cover at home against the Browns. Dallas is off to a disappointing 1-2 straight-up start with an 0-3 mark against the spread. That’s the worst start against the spread for the Cowboys since 1989, when they began 0-6.
However, the Browns have only covered once this season and own a minus-4.3 point differential. The Browns failed to cover their only road game so far as well as their only game as an underdog. SportsLine’s model is calling for a convincing 10-point Cowboys win that covers the spread in 60 percent of simulations. There’s also value on the under (56), which hits 56 percent of the time.
Another one of the top Week 4 NFL picks from the model: The Seahawks cover as 5.5-point road favorites against the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. The Seahawks are 3-0 and own the No. 2 scoring offense in the NFL behind only the Packers. Quarterback Russell Wilson has been a legitimate MVP candidate and should be able to take advantage of a Dolphins secondary that will likely be without prized cornerback Byron Jones (groin, Achilles).
Wilson has thrown an NFL record 14 touchdowns through three games and is leading the league with a 76.7 percent completion rate. The Dolphins rank 29th in net adjusted yards per pass attempt (7.7), while Seahawks receivers D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will be extremely tough to contain if Jones isn’t in the lineup.
The model predicts that Wilson tops 300 yards and throws for three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Metcalf and Lockett both approach 100 yards receiving and catch a touchdown as the Seahawks cover in well over 50 percent of simulations. The under (54) also hits in well over 50 percent of the model’s projections.
How to make Week 4 NFL picks
The model also has made the call on the huge Chiefs vs. Patriots matchup as well as every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule. It’s also identified a Super Bowl contender that goes down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 4? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,500 on its top-rated NFL picks.
NFL odds, matchups for Week 4
Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (+2.5, 43)
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (+3, 54)
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (+3, 51.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 49)
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 56)
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-3.5, 54.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (+5.5, 54)
Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7, 42.5)
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-13, 48)
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders (+3, 53)
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 45)
Baltimore Ravens at Washington (+13, 45)
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (off the board)
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-7, 56.5)