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I like to present an evidence as to why I like a facet or a complete for a sport. Quite than put up in a number of tweets, I’ll simply give some fast hits for what I’m betting for Week 9 of the school soccer season.
Sport Totals
12pm ET
Rutgers at Illinois UNDER 42
Illinois is coming off a nine-overtime win over Penn State. There have been 9 overtimes performed and the top outcome was a 20-18 rating. You might have two run-first groups, each of which have a defensive power … in opposition to the run. The Scarlet Knights are 88th in dashing yards however 106th in yards per carry.
The Combating Illini is high 50 in complete dashing yards and yards per carry, whereas additionally Twenty ninth-best at changing on third downs. Having a run-first staff with the flexibility to increase drives is nice for an UNDER play.
My finest wager of the week: North Texas at Rice UNDER 57
Duke at Wake Forest UNDER 71.5
This quantity is basically inflated due to the Demon Deacons’ 70-56 win final week over Military. OK, truthfully, it might occur for Wake Forest. This offense is fairly wonderful, sixth-best for offensive touchdowns scored, led by QB Sam Hartman. Duke, nevertheless, will not be wonderful. If I’m taking an OVER, I would like each groups to attain. The Blue Devils within the final three two street video games have scored 7 and 0 factors. I’d really feel fairly foolish holding an OVER when the rating ends 48-0. The issue? Turnovers. Duke is fourth-worst in giveaways, whereas Wake is third finest in takeaways. You possibly can’t rating in the event you hold turning the ball over.
Wyoming at San Jose State UNDER 41
You might have two of the slowest-paced groups in all of faculty soccer, each ranked backside 30 for performs per sport. Moreover, each are a hundred and tenth for complete offense and ninety fifth or worst for offensive touchdowns scored, averaging 23 and 17 factors per sport.
Defensively, each squads are high 45 for opponent factors per play and opponent touchdowns allowed. Neither gentle up the scoreboard, whereas each are nice at limiting factors. The makings of a low-scoring affair.
Arizona at USC UNDER 56
Try Tuesday’s episode of the Yahoo Sportsbook Day by day to listen to my reasoning.
ATS Picks
Rutgers at Illinois +1.5, +100
I talked about this complete above. Now, I’ll speak concerning the facet. Each groups lack in offense, 119th and 109th in complete offense, respectively. Illinois, nevertheless, has the one-two-punch duo with RBs Chase Brown and Joshua McCray, who collectively account for two-thirds of the entire dashing yards and 5 of the seven complete dashing scores, whereas the Scarlet Knights have only one operating again with over 300 yards on the season. These two are comparable when it comes to protection, so I’ll take the higher offense.
Iowa State at West Virginia +7.5, +250
Backing the Mountaineers on the street? Fade! That was the case however is now 1-7 since 2020 after defeating TCU final week 29-17 away. West Virginia at residence, nevertheless, a a lot completely different staff – a greater offense and a greater protection. This season at residence, WV held a dashing staff in Virginia Tech to 2.7 YPC and held a passing staff in Texas Tech to under 300 passing yards and nil passing touchdowns. QB Jarret Doege can be a special participant at residence than on the street.
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Away: 7 YPP, 2 TD, 4 INT, 10 sacks
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Dwelling: 9.5 YPP, 6 TDs, 1 INT, 5 sacks
UTEP +11.5 at Florida Atlantic
El Paso has two strengths: high 10 in complete protection (thirtieth in opposition to the cross, seventh in opposition to the run) and high 25 in making use of quarterback strain, producing 20 complete sacks on the season led by DE Jadrian Taylor. The Owls QB N’Kosi Perry is among the worst-protected quarterbacks sacked 17 occasions. What stops drives? Attacking the quarterback. Taylor can do this. The query turns into, can the Miners rating? Sure, simply run the ball. FAU is backside 15 in opposition to the run. Apply that QB strain, hold the offense to the bottom and generate some turnovers. UTEP is within the high 20 for takeaways.
Should you’re feeling frisky, +340 for the underdog is an choice.
Oregon State at Cal +2, +105
The Beavers are a run-first staff. The defensive power of the Golden Bears? Prime 35 in opposition to the run. Cal is a pass-first staff. The defensive power of Oregon State? Not in opposition to the cross, backside 10 in passing yards allowed (124th). The sting goes to the house staff with the considerably higher protection. Higher at limiting opponent purple zone makes an attempt, scores, and offensive touchdowns. Cal QB Chase Garbers has additionally proven enhancements as of late with 4 touchdowns and nil interceptions in his final two video games. Plus, he has 300 dashing yards on the season, practically 100 final week in opposition to Colorado. Hopefully he can parlay that current success into a house win.
Virginia +3, +115 at BYU
This would be the most potent offense the Cougars have confronted. The Cavaliers are high 30 in factors per play, first in purple zone makes an attempt, second in purple zone scores, twelfth in offensive touchdowns scores. Defensively, it stinks. Virginia is giving up yards, backside 20 in complete protection, however not essentially giving up the factors. Each groups are 62nd in opponent purple zone scores. Nevertheless, BYU is healthier at limiting touchdowns. As lower than a field-goal unfold, if this have been to return down a last game-winning, knock one by means of the goal-posts kind of sport, I’ll put my belief into Virginia’s kicker, Brendan Farrel, who has a 90 area objectives made proportion in comparison with BYU’s Jake Oldroyd with 65. That’s a fairly important distinction. I’ll take the higher offense that may rating extra touchdowns and has a greater kicker.
Parlay choices
A round-robin on all of the totals after which on all of the facet picks is price an choice. Nevertheless, if I have been to hone in on only one parlay from every, that is what I’d go together with.
OVER/UNDER three-team parlay (+600)
Duke at Wake Forest UNDER 71.5
Wyoming at San Jose State UNDER 41
Arizona at USC UNDER 56
ATS three-team underdog parlay (+600 ATS, +1415 ML)
Iowa State at West Virginia +7.5, +250
Oregon State at Cal +2, +105
Virginia +3, +115 at BYU
Massive betting card! Good luck!
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