It is exhausting to consider, however we’re already in Week 9 of the 2021 NFL season. 

This has been one of many wildest weeks of NFL information in fairly a while, and a few of it has a dramatic impact on one among Thursday night time’s two groups. The Tennessee Titans lead the AFC South by three video games over the Indianapolis Colts, however they only misplaced Derrick Henry for the foreseeable future. If the Colts are to make up floor, they’ve to start out proper now, towards the New York Jets (coming off their second win of the season!) on “Thursday Evening Soccer.”

Let’s check out the matchup, in addition to how one can watch the sport. 

The best way to watch

Date: Thursday, Nov. 4 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click on right here)
Observe: CBS Sports activities App
Odds: Colts -10.5, O/U 45.5

When the Jets have the ball

So… Mike White, huh? The White Lotus went 37 of 45 for 405 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions towards a Cincinnati Bengals protection that had beforehand appeared fairly rattling good and had most just lately been seen shutting down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. 

White’s efficiency was fairly fascinating, as a result of whereas he undoubtedly made some good throws, the Jets nearly solely requested him to verify down and get the ball into the arms of short-range targets, who then did work the ball of their arms. White averaged 9.0 yards per try, however his common go traveled simply 3.7 yards downfield, based on TruMedia. So, he ended up getting 68.4% of his passing yardage whole from yards that have been gained after the catch. He did not throw any deep (20-plus yards within the air) passes, however really went 5 of 6 for 75 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception on intermediate throws between 11 and 20 yards downfield. That is fairly spectacular. 

The excellent news for the Jets is that the Colts have gotten stress on a considerably-below-average 29.7% of opponent dropbacks this season, which suggests they will assist the Jets negate their greatest weak spot (go safety) simply by being unable to make the most of it within the first place. Additionally, Indy’s zone-heavy protection is designed to remove large performs down the sector and encourage checkdowns, which performs into what White apparently needs to do anyway. He is focused operating again Michael Carter on 22 of his 77 go makes an attempt throughout his two appearances this season, change-of-pace again Ty Johnson one other 10 occasions, and slot man Jamison Crowder 12 occasions. Each different participant has mixed for 33 targets — a 42.8% share. 

The Colts have been among the best defenses at limiting yards after the catch, although. Simply 46.3% of passing yards gained towards Indianapolis’ protection have come after the catch, the eighth-lowest share within the league. Opponents have additionally thrown downfield towards them on simply 8.2% of go makes an attempt, the NFL‘s fifth-lowest mark. In different phrases, the Colts take away all the pieces deep, encourage opponents to throw brief, after which do a greater job than nearly every other squad of rallying to the ball and limiting positive factors. New York must depend on Carter, Crowder, and doubtlessly Elijah Moore to evade tackles that different pass-catchers have struggled to keep away from all through the season. 

It appears wildly unlikely that the Jets will be capable of push the Colts round within the trenches and run the ball at them, contemplating Indy’s No. 1 rating in Soccer Outsiders’ rush protection DVOA and New York’s Twenty sixth-ranked run-blocking unit. 

When the Colts have the ball

The matchup on this facet of the ball comes down to 2 questions: Can Carson Wentz keep away from making a back-breaking mistake, be it a turnover or an premature sack — or will he even need to?

Jonathan Taylor is averaging over 6 yards per carry throughout the Colts’ final 5 video games, racking up six touchdowns on the bottom and one other on a display go. The Indianapolis offensive line is getting more healthy, with Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith again within the lineup. (Though Nelson is listed as questionable, per the group’s damage report). 

The Jets have the NFL’s Twenty third-ranked run protection by DVOA, nevertheless it’s very hit and miss. They’ve stopped runs at or behind the road of scrimmage 21% of the time, per Soccer Outsiders, the sixth-best mark within the NFL. But when they do not get a stuff, they usually get gashed. They’ve allowed an explosive run on 8.9% of opponent carries, a fee that ranks contained in the bottom-10. That is probably due to how typically the Jets stack the field to cease the run: 28.2% of opponent rush makes an attempt have come towards 8-man bins, per TruMedia, the NFL’s eighth-highest share. (Taylor ranks 18th amongst 50 qualifiers in yards per carry towards 8-man bins, a great signal for the Colts on this matchup).

The anticipated success for the Colts operating the ball takes some stress off of Wentz right here. He is performed pretty nicely since arriving in Indianapolis, however his irritating tendency to carry the ball too lengthy has come together with him from Philadelphia. It is too typically resulted in sacks, fumbles, and baffling selections, and he is lucked his method out of some turnovers that ought to have been made. If he does go to the air, although, the Jets do probably not have anybody who can cowl Michael Pittman Jr. The one fear is New York’s surprisingly frisky entrance with the ability to generate sufficient stress to drive Wentz into dangerous selections.

Prediction: Colts 24, Jets 17