Early picks for Week 11


School soccer’s Week 10 was stuffed with high-profile matchups and was highlighted by Notre Dame’s upset over Clemson. Week 11 goes to look somewhat completely different. There isn’t a single sport between two ranked opponents and three SEC video games have already been postponed

There have been 10 video games canceled or postponed final week, together with two video games I included in my picks. I went 2-1 within the three video games that remained to enhance my document to 25-22 on the yr. And regardless of the shortage of marquee video games in Week 11, there may be nonetheless loads of worth to be discovered on the board at BetMGM. 

Listed below are six video games that I’ve bought my eye on. 

(Notice: All instances ET, odds from BetMGM)

Iowa at Minnesota

Time: 7 p.m. (Friday) | TV: FS1 | Line: Iowa -3.5 | Complete: 57.5

Iowa misplaced its first two video games by a mixed 5 factors earlier than destroying Michigan State final week, 49-7. Minnesota allowed a mixed 94 factors in losses to Michigan and Maryland earlier than rebounding with a 41-14 win over Illinois. Although it held Illinois underneath 300 yards, that is nonetheless the identical Minnesota protection that gave up 481 yards to Michigan and 675 yards to Maryland. 

Illinois was right down to its fourth-string QB, however its working backs nonetheless had success vs. the Gophers, posting 139 yards on simply 15 rushes. Iowa shouldn’t have a lot hassle transferring the ball. On the opposite aspect, Minnesota’s offense has relied closely on its floor assault and may need some points in opposition to the Hawkeyes, who’re permitting solely 2.57 yards per rush thus far this yr. 

There’s additionally a development that makes me like Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 14-5-1 in opposition to the unfold of their final 20 video games as a single-digit street favourite. 

Decide: Iowa -3.5

East Carolina at No. 7 Cincinnati

Time: 7:30 p.m. (Friday) | TV: ESPN2 | Line: Cincinnati -27.5 | Complete: 56.5

I do know Cincinnati is absolutely good and East Carolina has a 1-5 document, however 27.5 is simply too many factors. ECU has been an underdog of 14 or extra factors six instances underneath Mike Houston and it has coated the unfold 5 instances. In these 5 video games, ECU has coated by a mean of 15.2 factors. A type of video games was final yr’s matchup in opposition to the Bearcats when UC was favored by 24.5 and gained by simply three factors. Underneath Luke Fickell, Cincinnati has been favored by at the least 21 factors six instances and is simply 2-4 ATS. 

Decide: East Carolina +27.5

Vanderbilt at Kentucky

Time: Midday | TV: SECN | Line: Kentucky -17.5 | Complete: 42.5

It’s onerous to inform when a group is 0-5, however Vanderbilt has been taking part in higher because it returned from its COVID-19 outbreak. The Commodores put up 421 yards of offense in opposition to Ole Miss after which went for 478 yards final week in opposition to Mississippi State. The issue has been turnovers. Within the 24-17 loss to MSU, Vandy turned it over 5 instances and misplaced regardless of out-gaining MSU by 274 yards. 

That each one brings me to Vandy’s journey to Kentucky. Kentucky has the worst offense within the SEC by a major margin. The Wildcats shouldn’t be favored by this many factors, even in opposition to Vanderbilt. Vandy is 8-2 ATS in its final 10 video games as a double-digit street underdog, together with protecting 5 straight instances in these spots. 

Decide: Vanderbilt +17.5

Vanderbilt quarterback Ken Seals has mixed for 665 passing yards in his final two video games. (AP Picture/Wade Payne)

No. 10 Indiana at Michigan State

Time: Midday | TV: ABC | Line: Indiana -7.5 | Complete: 51.5

Indiana is off to a 3-0 begin with spectacular wins over Penn State and Michigan. IU’s different win got here in opposition to Rutgers, and it felt like IU’s offense actually discovered a rhythm late in that sport and it carried over to the Michigan sport. I feel the sturdy offense play will proceed in opposition to Michigan State, a group that has losses to Rutgers and Iowa and a win over Michigan. 

MSU was capable of beat Michigan deep in its solely win of the yr, however Iowa took away the downfield passing sport final week and restricted Spartan RBs to solely three yards per rush. Indiana has the personnel on protection to do the identical factor and will pressure MSU QB Rocky Lombardi into a number of turnovers. 

Decide: Indiana -7.5

No. 20 USC at Arizona

Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: FOX | Line: USC -14.5 | Complete: 67.5

Although USC put up 556 yards of offense final week in its dramatic one-point victory over Arizona State, I feel this complete is simply too excessive. Within the Clay Helton period, the underneath is 8-17 in video games the place USC is favored by at the least seven factors, together with a 6-1 mark on the street. On prime of that, USC had one of many worst turnover margins within the nation final yr and began off 2020 by turning it over 5 instances vs. ASU. Turnovers take factors off the board. 

Arizona has scored a complete of 34 factors over its two video games in opposition to USC, each with Kevin Sumlin as head coach. Throughout Sumlin’s two-year tenure, the underneath is 6-2 in video games the place Arizona is an underdog of at the least seven factors. 

Decide: Underneath 67.5

Southern Miss at Western Kentucky

Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: CBSSN | Line: WKU -4.5 | Complete: 49.5

Western Kentucky has one of many worst offenses within the nation, averaging solely 15.3 factors and 272.8 yards per sport. WKU entered the yr as one of many Convention USA favorites however is now 2-6 on the yr. Saturday’s sport in opposition to Southern Miss, a group on its third head coach of the season, is a uncommon alternative to get a win. Southern Miss is coming off its second win of the yr, but it surely got here in opposition to North Alabama, an 0-3 FCS group. USM turned it over 4 instances and had simply 100 passing yards within the win. 

I’d be shocked if this wasn’t a really, very low-scoring sport. 

Decide: Underneath 49.5

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