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Garrett Shrader, QB, @Syracuse vs. Purdue – Over 219.5 Passing Yards & Over 18.5 Completions
Have been riding the wave of new OC Robert Anae‘s up-tempo, passing oriented offense that has caused Shrader to cruise to two straight Overs on his passing yardage line. This actually opened at 209.5 passing yards, which is an amazing line that I ate up until I went up to 219.5 on Prize Picks. Keep riding this Orange offense against a Purdue team that rips off 81 plays per game while ranking 11th nationally with 44.5 pass attempts per contest. This game is going to feature plenty of action with O’Connell’s Over set at a much higher 340.5 passing yards. Instead of paying the premium for O’Connell’s passing total, take the 121 yard discount and just grab Shrader at 219.5 instead. I also think he hits the Over 18.5 Completions, as Purdue throws way more than either UConn or Louisville and Syracuse will need to keep pace.
Cam Ward, QB, Wazzu – 240.5 Over Passing Yards
I recommended Ward’s Over at 250.5 passing yards Week 1 against Idaho where he came up just short at 228 pass yards on 41 attempts. Last week he only hit 200 yards, but it was on just 28 pass attempts due to Wisconsin’s ultra-methodical ball control offense. Coming off the inspirational upset of the Badgers, Wazzu has the pleasure of facing another air-raid offense in Colorado State led by first year former Nevada HC Jay Norvell who is changing the roster over. At Nevada it took him four seasons before the Wolfpack started thriving whereas he’s only two games into his CSU tenure. The Rams got smoked by Middle Tennessee last weekend, as a combination of four turnovers and a rushing attack that actually lost 10 yards on 34 attempts combined to sink their chances. They also allowed 31 completions on 39 pass attempts, as MTSU QB Cade Cunningham sliced up the Colorado State secondary for 266 yards as the Blue Raiders got out to a 34-0 lead before three late passing touchdowns from Cade Millen to Tory Horton kept it respectable at 34-19. I think Wazzu uses this game to get their passing game straight and throws the ball 45+ times against a soft secondary, leading to Ward clearing the Over 240.5 passing yards.
Jo’Quavious Marks, RB, Mississippi State – Under 34.5 Receiving Yards
Mississippi State HC Mike Leach has settled on Dillon Johnson as his primary running back, with Johnson receiving 49 snaps to Marks’ 31 last week in a competitive game against Arizona. Production-wise – Johnson caught all six of his targets for 34 yards, while Marks caught all four passes thrown his way for 17 yards. If anything, it should be Johnson priced at 34.5 receiving yards with MSU facing an extremely talented LSU defense that ranks 9th nationally in 247sports player rating and is still coming together under new HC Brian Kelly and DC Matt House ranking 32nd in overall team performance. I’ll play the odds and take the Under on Marks’ 34.5 receiving yards.
Over the first two games Bradley has established himself as the favored X-WR of OC Zach Kittley, receiving 20 targets so far, which is 9 more looks than any other receiver on the team, while reeling in 3-of-7 downfield passes. Last week in the team’s first test against 25th ranked Houston, Bradley received 13 targets, which was 7 more than any other Red Raiders wideout, in addition to running the most routes on the team with 62. Curiously, Myles Price only ran 24 routes in the game which ranked sixth on the team in terms of reps. Since he only caught three passes on 20 routes in their first game, i’m troubled by his lack of consistent involvement in the offense. With Nehemiah Martinez thriving in the slot and fellow slot Xavier White running 11 more routes than Price, i’m concerned he won’t be on the field enough to hit this 60.5 receiving yards Over. New OC Kittley doesn’t have any allegiances to the existing roster and is still trying to find his preferred lineup. Bradle is in whereas Price is seeing his reps cut. With Tech facing a strong NC State defense that is only allowing a 33% success rate (31st), I think Bradley hits the Over while i’m skeptical of Price due to his dwindling snap count, as he’s going to need to break a big play to get past 60.5 receiving yards.
Cedric Tillman, WR, @Tennessee vs. Akron – Over 72.5 Receiving Yards
Cedric Tillman is one of my favorite receivers to watch and an underrated Devy league asset due to his late breakout age. Not only is Tillman projected to be of the most heavily targeted in the country, but he plays for one of the fastest (81.5 plays per game = 7th) and most powerful offenses in the land. Last week he exploded for nine receptions on 18 targets (!) for 162 yards and a touchdown against Pitt. In Week 1 against Ball State, he caught six-of-seven targets for 68 yards before shutting it down in the comfortable win. Tillman is going to produce, it’s just a matter of will he have enough game time to accrue the yardage necessary to hit the Over 72.5 against an Akron team that just lost 52-0 and allowed 496 total yards to Michigan State last weekend, though they did pick off the Spartans twice. I’m a Tillman believer and this 72.5 receiving yardage line is practically taunting an Over play here.