Rating the eight groups left in NFL playoffs: Payments-Chiefs showdown options two of league’s heavyweights

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We’re days away from the NFL’s greatest weekend of soccer, the divisional spherical of the playoffs. Eight groups stay in rivalry for Tremendous Bowl LVI with 4 advancing to the convention championship recreation after this weekend. These 4 groups must earn their convention championship recreation spots, as not one of the groups left are a straightforward out.

The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and Buffalo Payments proceed their current rivalry in a rematch of final yr’s AFC Championship Sport whereas the Inexperienced Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers meet in a rematch of the NFC Championship Sport from two seasons in the past. The Tennessee Titans had been the shock No. 1 seed within the AFC, however face an upstart Cincinnati Bengals staff with a high-powered offense, whereas the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers get their anticipated rematch with the Los Angeles Rams

All of those groups are good, which makes it troublesome to rank one of the best of one of the best. These rankings are primarily based on which groups have one of the best shot to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy three weeks from Sunday. 

8. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are a tricky matchup for any staff due to their physicality and their means to make Deebo Samuel a Swiss Military knife within the offense. Samuel is the primary participant in NFL historical past with 1,300 receiving yards and 300 dashing yards in a season — and had a season-high 10 carries for 72 yards and a landing within the wild card win over the Cowboys

San Francisco is a harmful staff that averages 6.1 yards per play and has 67% purple zone conversion fee — each lead the NFL. The 49ers are 8-2 of their final 10 video games, with the protection permitting simply 18.0 factors per recreation (fourth within the league). The much-maligned Jimmy Garoppolo has gained 77% of his video games on the street, trailing solely Patrick Mahomes for one of the best win share on the street for the reason that merger. 

The 49ers can be a tricky out for the Packers this weekend, even because the No. 6 seed within the NFC, the bottom remaining seed within the playoffs.

7. Cincinnati Bengals 

How can a staff with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, and Tee Higgins be ranked this low? This is not an indictment of the Bengals, however how stacked the remaining playoff groups are. Cincinnati is 0-7 all time in street playoff video games, however Burrow is 5-1 in his final six street video games and is on a scorching streak. Burrow has accomplished 75% of his passes with 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions and a 131.3 passer ranking in his final 4 video games, making the AFC North champions a tricky out for any staff they face in these playoffs. The Bengals have additionally taken 44 fewer penalties than their opponents this yr — one of the best within the league. 

The Bengals are 5-0 in opposition to AFC playoff groups this season, however not having Larry Ogunjobi goes to considerably harm their protection. Cincinnati has gotten stress on 35% of their 478 snaps with Larry Ogunjobi on the sector (second in NFL), and on simply 26% of their 269 snaps with Ogunjobi off the sector (thirtieth in NFL). Burrow has additionally been sacked 53 occasions this yr, probably the most within the league. 

This staff wants their high-powered offense to supply in opposition to the Titans this weekend with the cross rush taking a big hit, however there is not any purpose to rely out Cincinnati on this matchup. The Bengals have an offense to go to the Tremendous Bowl, if that line can shield Burrow. 

6. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are going to be a tricky out for any staff left within the NFC playoffs, particularly because the champions of the NFC West, one of the best division in soccer this season. Los Angeles is 7-2 on the street with Matthew Stafford being arguably one of the best quarterback of the remaining sign callers in opposition to the blitz (72%, 17 touchdowns, one interception, 141.8 ranking). That is vital going through a Buccaneers staff that blitzes 36% of the time, second-most within the NFL. 

Los Angeles is 12-3 within the japanese time zone underneath Sean McVay (together with 3-0 this yr), averaging 29.0 factors per recreation and permitting 19.1 factors per recreation. Midseason acquisitions Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller have made their influence, as Beckham has a receiving landing in six of his final eight video games and Miller has a sack in 5 straight video games. 

Whatever the Rams’ expertise, their protection is fifteenth in factors allowed and seventeenth in yards allowed. Their third-down protection sits at 41.3%, twenty first within the NFL. Los Angeles can be examined at Tampa Bay this weekend, a matchup the place the Rams can show they will play as much as their expertise degree.

5. Tennesse Titans

The No. 1 seed within the AFC would not have historical past because the No. 1 seed. Each occasions the Titans had been the No. 1 seed (2000 and 2008), they misplaced their first playoff recreation. Why is that this Titans staff completely different? 

Tennessee has eight wins in opposition to groups with a successful file and has used 91 completely different gamers this season — each are NFL information. That is regardless of lacking Derrick Henry for 9 video games, after he rushed for 837 yards and 10 touchdowns within the first eight video games. The Titans protection has additionally been scorching scorching over the past 5 video games, permitting simply 12.8 factors (second in NFL) and three.2 yards per carry (additionally second in NFL). Ryan Tannehill has seven cross touchdowns to zero interceptions over the past three video games. 

The Titans are anticipated to get Henry again for the postseason. They averaged 28.4 factors per recreation with Henry within the lineup (21.3 with out). Harold Landry, Denico Autry, and Jeffery Simmons had been the one trio of teammates with eight or extra sacks this yr, indicating Tennessee’s cross rush can get to Joe Burrow. If Henry would not get off to a sluggish begin in his return, the Titans are going to be a harmful staff to beat at residence this postseason. 

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The defending Tremendous Bowl champions are top-of-the-line groups remaining within the playoff area. Whereas the Buccaneers nonetheless have Tom Brady, the protection would be the unit getting Tampa Bay again to the NFC Championship Sport. The return of Shaquil Barrett, Lavonte David, and Jason Pierre-Paul helped the protection shut out the Philadelphia Eagles by means of three quarters as Barrett had an interception and and Pierre-Paul had two pressures. 

The Buccaneers are 8-1 of their final 9 video games and have scored 30 factors in all 5 playoff video games with Brady at quarterback, as they’ve but to lose a playoff recreation with Brady. Tampa Bay is averaging 30.1 factors (second in NFL), 402.8 yards (first), changing 46% of third downs (third) and scoring touchdowns on 66% of their purple zone alternatives (second). 

Whereas Tampa Bay has allowed the fewest pressures within the league (158) and has probably the most pressures (272), the doable lack of Tristan Wirfs (he is in a strolling boot however might nonetheless probably play Sunday) could be large. Brady must eliminate the ball fast once more and depend on Leonard Fournette’s return to curtail a Rams protection that likes to get after the quarterback. 

3. Buffalo Payments

The Payments are a Tremendous Bowl contender, which is predicted when a staff completed third within the league in factors per recreation (28.4), fifth in yards per recreation (381.9), first in factors allowed per recreation (17.0) and first in yards allowed per recreation (272.8). Buffalo is the primary staff in NFL historical past to file zero punts, turnovers or area objective makes an attempt in a recreation (common season or playoffs) and the primary staff in league historical past to attain a landing on the primary seven drives of a playoff recreation, as they did in opposition to the Patriots final week.

After beginning the yr 7-6, the Payments have gained 5 straight and have outscored their opponents by 18 factors per recreation. They’re the eighth staff for the reason that 1970 merger to win 12 video games by 12-plus factors (every of earlier seven groups gained Tremendous Bowl). When the Payments win, they win large. 

Buffalo is sweet sufficient to symbolize the AFC within the Tremendous Bowl, however they’re 0-6 this season when the sport is set by fewer than 12 factors. Additionally they need to face a Chiefs staff that’s 6-1 with Patrick Mahomes beginning at quarterback at Arrowhead Stadium. Mahomes has 20 cross touchdowns to 1 interception in seven profession residence playoff video games.

The Payments did beat the Chiefs this season in convincing style. Each Kansas Metropolis and Buffalo are completely different groups than after they met in Week 5, making this showdown between the AFC powers the sport of the yr within the NFL. 

2. Inexperienced Bay Packers 

The highest seed within the NFC comes out of their well-deserved bye week seeking to make their third straight NFC Championship Sport look. Inexperienced Bay is the primary staff in NFL historical past to win 13-plus video games in three straight seasons and is doubtlessly getting linebacker Za’Darius Smith, cornerback Jaire Alexander, extensive receiver Randall Cobb, and tackles Billy Turner and David Bakhtiari again for the playoffs. The Packers are additionally 8-0 at residence this yr, the one undefeated staff at residence within the league. 

Aaron Rodgers is purple scorching heading into the playoffs, throwing 20 touchdowns to zero interceptions over his final seven video games. The Packers are averaging 33.4 factors per recreation throughout that stretch. Rodgers is within the midst of one other MVP season, finishing 69% of his passes (third in NFL) a landing to interception ratio of 37-4 (first) and 111.9 passer ranking (first). The Packers will at all times have a chance to go to the Tremendous Bowl with Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur, who has gained 39 video games over his first three seasons — probably the most in NFL historical past.  

Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, and Kenny Clark are the one trio within the NFL to every have 55 pressures on the yr, however the Packers weak spot is within the run protection. Inexperienced Bay permits 4.7 yards per carry this yr (thirtieth within the NFL), and face a San Francisco staff that has a bodily working recreation and one of the best zone-run scheme within the league. If Inexperienced Bay can cease the run this weekend, the Packers can be going again to the NFC Championship Sport.

That is the Packers’ greatest probability to go to the Tremendous Bowl with Rodgers taking part in at a degree on par along with his MVP season and a extra gifted roster surrounding him. 

1. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs

The Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes mixture is arguably one of the best within the NFL, particularly come postseason. The Chiefs have been to the AFC Championship Sport three straight seasons and the Tremendous Bowl two straight years. Kansas Metropolis is battle examined for the large video games, particularly at Arrowhead Stadium (their solely playoff loss at residence underneath Mahomes was an extra time loss during which Mahomes by no means touched the ball in OT). 

Till the Reid-Mahomes mixture is taken down within the AFC, Kansas Metropolis is the favourite to symbolize the convention within the Tremendous Bowl. The Chiefs are 10-1 since beginning the yr 3-4 and have allowed a league-low 16.4 factors per recreation in that span, rising into the staff that has managed the convention over the previous couple of years. 

Mahomes is unbelievable at residence within the postseason, throwing 20 touchdowns to 1 interception whereas finishing 67.9% of his passes and averaging 310.3 passing yards per recreation. He has the best postseason passer ranking in NFL historical past (105.1), having two of probably the most dynamic weapons in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Kelce is coming off his fourth straight 100-yard receiving recreation within the postseason (tied for the longest in NFL historical past) and seventh general, trailing solely Jerry Rice for probably the most in NFL historical past (eight). All three of Kansas Metropolis’s offensive stalwarts are prime performers within the postseason, making the Chiefs much more harmful.

The Chiefs’ passing recreation will must be at their greatest to beat a Payments cross protection that is first in cross yards allowed and have allowed the fewest cross touchdowns within the league. Kansas Metropolis will even want Jerick McKinnon to shine once more, particularly in opposition to a Payments run protection that has allowed the sixth-most rush touchdowns within the league.  

Kansas Metropolis has all of the items in place to go to the Tremendous Bowl once more.

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