NFL Week 16 picks, odds: Rodgers makes Christmas MVP assertion, Patriots hand Payments one other ugly loss


Week 15 is up there by way of probably the most insanely weird NFL weeks I’ve ever seen. Clearly having two video games Monday and two video games Tuesday is an effective begin to that, 

The Texans scored 30 factors in a cakewalk victory, the Lions beat the Cardinals and Tom Brady scored zero factors in a house, primetime loss. It was a bizarre week throughout, fittingly coming within the longest week in NFL historical past. 

Hopefully everybody can have a profitable and joyful Christmas, and within the spirit of Christmas miracles, I’ll write up fewer of those picks and toss some scores for meaningless video games on the backside. 

My ATS document in opposition to the unfold this 12 months is simply terrible, however 9-5 final week is powerful. A powerful near the season can salvage this 12 months ATS so let’s get scorching over the vacations. 

All NFL odds are by way of Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 16 Picks

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: 
NFL Community | Stream: fuboTV (click on right here)
Observe: CBS Sports activities App

Newest Odds:

Tennessee Titans
+3

Week 15 featured loads of underdogs barking loudly, so I am somewhat hesitant to leap onto a street favourite on a brief week. However the 49ers are beginning to cook dinner. Deebo Samuel seems to be the catalyst for this run recreation, together with his presence within the backfield wrecking havoc on opposing defenses. Kyle Shanahan’s playcalling has been excellent and the Niners seem to have a fairly good secure of backs able to producing on a weekly foundation — with Elijah Mitchell out, Jeff Wilson stepped up properly in opposition to the Falcons. Tennessee has been good in opposition to the run this season however the 49ers ought to have the ability to stretch them horizontally. The one factor I might be cautious of in case you’re backing Jimmy Garoppolo and Co. right here is the return of A.J. Brown and/or Julio Jones. The latter is not regarding primarily based on his current efficiency however a quasi-revenge matchup in opposition to Kyle Shanahan would not less than be price watching. 

The decide: 49ers 28, Titans 21
Props, Greatest Bets: 49ers -3.5

Which NFL picks are you able to make with confidence, and which Tremendous Bowl contender will go down exhausting? Go to SportsLine now to see which groups win and canopy the unfold, all from a confirmed laptop mannequin on a 133-96 roll on NFL picks.

Saturday (Christmas), 4:30 p.m. ET
TV:
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click on right here)
Observe: CBS Sports activities App

Newest Odds:

Inexperienced Bay Packers
-7.5

The Browns ought to get a wave of replacements again from the COVID record heading into Saturday’s Christmas recreation in Inexperienced Bay and so they’re catching a full landing right here. Extraordinarily intriguing! However then I begin to consider watching Aaron Rodgers on his ‘Eff You Tour,’ at residence, in entrance of an enormous crowd on Christmas in opposition to a protection that has appeared good however bought banged up Monday in opposition to the Raiders and is taking part in on a brief week. Rodgers held on in opposition to the Ravens within the late window on Sunday, then bought to observe Tom Brady lay an enormous egg in opposition to the Saints whereas shedding his prime two receivers. The reigning MVP is aware of this 12 months’s MVP race — plus the race for the No. 1 seed — simply bought huge open and might be conscious of the thrill surrounding Jonathan Cooper and Cooper Kupp. I would not have a lot curiosity in getting in entrance of him right here, though I are inclined to assume a wholesome Browns offense may run positive in opposition to Inexperienced Bay if everyone seems to be wholesome. However Inexperienced Bay ought to have the ability to rating early after which lean into Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

The decide: Packers 31, Browns 17
Props, Greatest Bets: Over 44

Colts at Cardinals

Saturday (Christmas), 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: 
NFLN | Stream: fuboTV (click on right here)
Observe: CBS Sports activities App

Newest Odds:

Arizona Cardinals
-1

I am somewhat stunned the road hasn’t moved to make the Colts favorites on this recreation, however possibly we’re overselling the Cardinals issues? The Colts additionally made it VERY clear how necessary the sport in opposition to New England was. Frank Reich mainly described it as their Tremendous Bowl. In case you’re prepared to discard the 2019 “Andrew Luck Retires Throughout Coaching Camp” season, Reich is 10-2 in December (1-4 in 2019). Matt Eberflus’ protection merely does not surrender massive dashing video games to cellular quarterbacks. A number of video games in opposition to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson the final two years have resulted in minimal injury on the bottom. 

The Decide: Colts 24, Cardinals 21
Props, Greatest Bets: Colts +1

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click on right here)  

Newest Odds:

Cincinnati Bengals
-3

Huge, large recreation for the AFC North right here. Nobody is getting eradicated, however a Bengals sweep of the Ravens would put them within the driver’s seat for the division. I initially wished to attend and see if Lamar Jackson was taking part in earlier than betting this recreation however John Harbaugh positive does sound like somebody who’s getting ready to try to steal a recreation with Tyler Huntley. Huntley was method higher than anticipated in that recreation and that efficiency has to present Harbaugh pause earlier than he performs Lamar. Baltimore is on skinny ice for the playoffs however a wholesome Lamar can win the following two video games and so they’ll be positive. The calculus of taking part in Lamar too early and never having him for a playoff run does not add up. Joe Burrow laying an egg in opposition to the Browns could be an outlier — it appears like he desires to shred division opponents. This can be a spot to seize the division and Baltimore is banged up, so I will take Burrow in an announcement recreation.

The Decide: Bengals 35, Ravens 28
Bets: Bengals -2.5, Joe Burrow overs

Lions at Falcons

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click on right here)  

Newest Odds:

Atlanta Falcons
-5.5

Have you ever seen this absurd unfold? The Falcons are favored by almost a landing in opposition to the spread-covering Terminator Detroit Lions. I hate the 2021 Falcons. However I believe I’ve lastly figured them out — they beat up on actually unhealthy groups and get smoked by something remotely resembling a playoff crew. The Lions attempt actually exhausting however after their different win of the season, they misplaced 38-10 to the Broncos. Whenever you’re residing on 78 ounces of Dan Campbell being injected into your veins a day, there’s going to be a pure endorphin crash after you have a good time a win. This can be a clear Matt Ryan/Cordarrelle Patterson blowup spot. The Jared Goff scenario is in flux with amended protocols, so it is not possible to understand how that performs out. I might guess the road strikes over a landing shortly if Goff was out, however we’d not know till Saturday. If you may get the Falcons beneath a landing, I might take it. Something extra and also you wait till the Goff information comes out.

The Decide: Falcons 24, Lions 14
Bets: Falcons -6, Kyle Pitts anytime landing

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click on right here)  

Newest Odds:

New England Patriots
-2.5

The Patriots have been a transparent play right here earlier than the primetime windfest, however the Payments’ COVID points may shoot this line up over three, which is somewhat regarding in case you get the total Payments offense. Buffalo scares the hell out of me proper now — Sean McDermott’s been on tilt for 3 or 4 weeks for the reason that wind recreation, a loopy comeback in opposition to the Bucs the place he was crying at halftime after which taking part in his outdated crew. He would possibly simply be loopy sufficient to drag off an upset … however Belichick after a loss weighs considerably extra on this recreation. Issue within the Payments’ incapability to cease the run, how Belichick can assault this offense with a double of Diggs, and the COVID scenario and I believe the Pats are a terrific worth right here. 

The Decide: Patriots 24, Payments 14
Bets: Pats -2.5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click on right here)  

Newest Odds:

Minnesota Vikings
+3

I am undecided why this complete is beneath 50. Possibly it is the Seahawks-Rams snoozer from Tuesday coupled with a brilliant brief week for the Rams inflicting it. Enjoying Tuesday after which taking part in Sunday is a fairly insane ask. Minnesota performed Monday evening on the street, so it isn’t like issues have been simple for them both. However their 7-7 document after sneaking previous the Bears offers them a spot within the playoffs, so they need to be fairly determined. I am undecided what they need do matches up effectively with the Rams although — L.A. is prime shelf in opposition to the run and Minnesota desires to feed Dalvin Prepare dinner. The Vikings will increase the ceiling of groups they play and this recreation may find yourself that includes some scoring.

The Decide: Rams 37, Vikings 34
Bets: Over

Broncos at Raiders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click on right here)  

Newest Odds:

Las Vegas Raiders
PK

Technically nonetheless an necessary recreation as a result of the loser is toast within the playoff race. And we get to wager in opposition to Drew Lock? Derek Carr has fallen off however given the circumstances, his efficiency remains to be actually spectacular. This needs to be a low-scoring matchup however I lean Raiders with the Lock scenario creating havoc.

The Decide: Raiders 24, Broncos 21
Bets: Raiders -1

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click on right here)  

Newest Odds:

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
-8

Huge recreation for the AFC with a wild card scenario involving all of the COVID issues in Kansas Metropolis. It is robust to handicap this recreation with out understanding whether or not or not Travis Kelce shall be taking part in and that is not truly out there, however I am in all probability going to love the Steelers getting a landing or extra.  

The Decide: Chiefs 24, Steelers 17
Bets: TBD

WFT at Dallas

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: 
NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click on right here)  

Newest Odds:

Dallas Cowboys
-10.5

Brutal recreation for WFT on Tuesday — a second consecutive loss after climbing the standings. The protection is falling again to earth and so they had method too many COVID points to contemplate stopping the Eagles run recreation. That is regarding with Dallas coming to city. The Cowboys offense hasn’t performed effectively in any respect these days however possibly it is a get proper spot? Both method we must always see Washington wrestle to supply factors in opposition to a Cowboys protection that may earn Dan Quinn one other head teaching job.

The Decide: Cowboys 24, WFT 10
Bets: Cowboys/beneath

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: 
ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click on right here)  

Newest Odds:

New Orleans Saints
-3

Tremendous bizarre matchup on a Monday evening however shockingly necessary after the Dolphins held off the Jets to maintain surging in direction of the playoffs and the Saints blanked the Bucs to get proper again within the combine. I am backing Sean Payton right here in a recreation the place he merely out-coaches Brian Flores, due to Dennis Allen cooking up a recreation plan to wreck Tua’s day. That residence vacation power in New Orleans plus Alvin Kamara in prime time shall be sufficient to present the Saints an enormous win.

The Decide: Saints 24, Dolphins 14
Bets: Saints -3

Different Scores/Picks:

Jets 15, Jaguars 14
Chargers 17, Texans 10
Buccaneers 27, Panthers 14

Eagles 27, Giants 6
Seahawks 17, Bears 14



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