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Alabama
Season win whole: OVER 11.5 (-105), UNDER (+110)
Win SEC West (-400)
Win SEC (-165)
Attain the playoff (-350)
Win nationwide championship (+260)
Since 2009, Alabama has gained the SEC championship seven instances and two of the final years. Gone is 2020 Heisman winner DeVonta Smith, first-round choose WR Jaylen Waddle, quarterback Mac Jones, and a slew of different gamers that led Alabama to the nationwide championship final 12 months.
Nick Saban continues to be the top coach, although, and Alabama nonetheless had the No. 1 recruiting class coming into the season. This can be a group that reloads yearly. So if not gauging the gamers, then consider the schedule.
There is a large matchup proper out of the gate with Miami in Week 1. The Hurricanes ranked backside third in quarterback safety final 12 months, whereas Alabama was prime 30 in quarterback sacks. Even when Miami improves, that could be a massive differential to beat from one season to the subsequent.
Alabama then heads to Florida in Week 3. The Gators are prone to have a quarterback with much less passing manufacturing than Kyle Trask did final 12 months, however with extra speeding yards, based mostly on the dual-threat quarterbacks listed as choices on the UF depth chart. Alabama’s greatest protection is towards the run. Contemplating it is going to be Bama quarterback Bryce Younger’s first true highway sport, I’ll expect the Crimson Tide protection to win the sport.
Week 5 towards Mississippi will likely be a enjoyable one. Twice we’ve seen a Nick Saban protection susceptible to a high-octane passing quarterback from Ole Miss. First got here in 2017 in a 43-37 loss to then-quarterback Chad Kelly. Kelly handed for 341 yards and three touchdowns. It was that sport that helped me money large on backing Ole Miss as 24-point underdogs to Bama final 12 months and the over at 74. Why? QB Matt Corral and this offense resembled the 2017 Rebels. Saban is 2-0 straight-up towards Lane Kiffin within the final two seasons, however 0-2 ATS. It may very well be one other high-scoring affair, however Alabama ought to come via with one other win.
Alabama then performs in back-to-back highway journeys to Texas A&M (new quarterback and new offensive line), at Mississippi State (4-7 in 2020), and at house towards Tennessee (3-7 in 2020). Different opponents on Bama’s schedule: New Mexico State (performed simply two video games in 2020), and Arkansas (new quarterback after successful three video games in a season for the primary time since 2017).
The 2 video games on Alabama’s schedule to be careful for: house towards LSU in November and the season nearer at Auburn. Ed Orgeron’s Tigers are my underrated group within the SEC. Alabama does have an 8-1 document towards LSU and are 6-2 ATS in that point. Alabama can be 12-7 ATS as house favorites within the final three seasons, whereas going 5-0 ATS as house favorites final 12 months.
The nearer at Auburn is an fascinating one. Within the final 4 seasons, Auburn has gained each matchups at house, successful 26-14 in 2017 and 48-45 in 2019. Who was quarterback again then for Auburn? Returning starter Bo Nix. The Tigers are 26-6 at house since 2015 and Nix is 10-2 at house as a starter.
If there was one group I’d wager Alabama can lose to, I’d put my cash on Auburn.
Alabama might very effectively go undefeated once more this 12 months. Slightly than taking a four-month-long wager on a season win whole, I’d be seeking to again Auburn at house as 17-point underdogs and pancake sprinkle on +550 moneyline. This look-ahead line is juicy.
Even with a single loss, nonetheless, Bama is primed to win one other SEC title and make a run on the nationwide championship.
Betting Possibility: Alabama to win the SEC -165
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