Greatest NFL Thanksgiving bets 2021: Prime performs on level unfold, whole and participant props for vacation video games

Blissful Thanksgiving to all. For some, this vacation is about reconnecting with family members and having fun with pumpkin pie. For others, it is about placing on a cheerful face for the in-laws whereas preserving one eye on the TV and the opposite in your Caesar Sportsbook app. Prefer it or not, Thanksgiving is popping into an NFL playing vacation, very similar to the Tremendous Bowl. It is a big day the place you possibly can zero in on three video games and add some financial pleasure to what’s already speculated to be a big day. 

Chicago BearsDetroit Lions, Dallas CowboysLas Vegas Raiders after which the Buffalo PaymentsNew Orleans Saints nightcap. It must be a enjoyable day, and between spreads, Over/Unders and participant props, there are many alternatives to show your Thanksgiving right into a profitable one. Let’s check out some bets we’re excessive on. 

All NFL odds through Caesars Sportsbook  

Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (0-9-1)

Newest Odds:

Chicago Bears

This primary vacation matchup has to do with the quarterbacks, as Andy Dalton will begin instead of Justin Fields after the rookie suffered a ribs damage, whereas the Lions sound like they’re able to return Jared Goff to the beginning lineup after he missed final sport. Whereas Fields is the long run and a younger participant with an extremely excessive ceiling, Dalton truly has the higher hand in a number of statistical classes when he is on the sector. In accordance with TruMedia, with Dalton below heart, the Bears are averaging .5 extra yards per play, .7 extra yards per rush, the sack share is down from 16 to 7 and Dalton is also changing 12% extra third downs.

These two groups met in Week 4, when the Bears recorded a 24-14 victory. Chicago relied on the run sport, and rushed for 188 yards on 39 carries — probably the most speeding yards in a single sport all season for the Bears. It is truthful to count on this may very well be the sport plan right here once more in Week 12, however Chicago will even have to arrange for the Lions’ star working again. D’Andre Swift has rushed for over 130 yards in every of the final two contests, and might damage defenses as a receiving again as nicely.

The Complete is so low at 41.5 that I will both not contact it or take a flier on the Over. This can be a unfold I would not contact both. I’ve a lean to the favorites in Chicago for the reason that Bears are 4-1 ATS vs. groups with a shedding file, however with quarterback adjustments, I am not betting the home on this one. 

Prediction: Bears (-3) 24-20 over Lions

A prop from Tyler Sullivan’s betting information

David Montgomery whole speeding yards: Over 77.5 (-115). Detroit is without doubt one of the worst run defenses within the NFL, averaging 140.5 yards per sport on the bottom. These numbers are even worse whenever you take a look at the Lions’ final three video games (188.3 yards speeding per sport). This units up Montgomery properly to have a breakout efficiency since getting back from injured reserve. 

Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

Newest Odds:

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are coming off of a deflating, 19-9 loss to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs final week, however return residence for the vacation –where they’re 6-1 ATS of their final seven video games in Arlington. We could not have a pulse on how reputable a contender the Cowboys are at this level within the season, however they nonetheless look like one of many higher groups within the NFC. They need to be capable to defeat a reeling Raiders membership on Thanksgiving.

Derek Carr’s squad has been by loads this season with the Jon Gruden and Henry Ruggs III sagas. Whereas the Raiders put collectively a two-game win streak after Gruden’s exit, Vegas has now misplaced two straight by double digits. You’d assume that this Cowboys offense can present up and drop some critical factors on the Raiders, however Dallas’ offense statistically hasn’t been as nice over the previous few weeks, and Dak Prescott shall be with out Amari Cooper and probably CeeDee Lamb

My lean is to the Cowboys, however I’d contemplate shopping for a full level. I feel my technique shall be to purchase the Cowboys down and place them in a same-game parlay with a few different alternate participant props. I’ve a lean to the Below as nicely, because the Below is 4-0 within the Cowboys’ final 4 video games. 

Prediction: Cowboys (-7.5) 30-21 over Raiders

A prop from Tyler Sullivan’s betting information

Dalton Schultz whole receiving yards: Over 49.5 (-120). With Cooper and probably Lamb out for this sport, their targets might want to go someplace and Schultz is third on the group in targets on the season. He additionally has a robust matchup in opposition to the Raiders, who’re permitting opposing tight ends to common over 66 receiving yards per sport on roughly 10.6 yards per reception. 

Buffalo Payments (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)

Newest Odds:

Buffalo Payments

The Payments have been blasted by the Indianapolis Colts 41-15 on Sunday, however quarterback Josh Allen says they’re lucky to be enjoying on a brief week to allow them to rapidly flip their consideration to a different opponent. The Saints are struggling proper now, as Sean Payton could must revisit beginning Trevor Siemian. To associate with quarterback points, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are injured, as are a number of members of the offensive line. 

Whereas I am not bullish on the spreads for the primary two Thanksgiving video games, I’m on this one. Payments -6 is one among my high 5 picks of the week. In accordance with TruMedia, the Saints have lined up in man protection on 36 p.c of their defensive snaps this season, which is the sixth-highest charge within the NFL. Allen has been top-of-the-line quarterbacks in opposition to man protection this season, as he has a completion share of 63% (ninth-highest amongst 34 certified quarterbacks), 7.7 yards per move try (Tenth-most amongst certified quarterbacks), and has thrown eight touchdowns in opposition to man protection (tied for seventh-most amongst certified quarterbacks).

Prediction: Payments (-6) 28-20

A prop from Tyler Sullivan’s betting information

Devin Singletary whole speeding yards: Over 24.5 (-115). Singletary is averaging almost double this prop on the season and has gone over this whole in eight of his 10 video games performed this season. The Saints additionally simply allowed two totally different backs (and Jalen Hurts) to hurry for over 60 yards final week. 

Particular Thanksgiving prop bets

Most Turkey Day passing yards

Dak Prescott +220
Josh Allen +220
Derek Carr +260
Trevor Siemian +1200
Andy Dalton +1200
Tim Boyle +1400

I really like these Thanksgiving specials, and this one is fairly intriguing. I am not anticipating any sort of wild upset right here, because the winner has to lie in that high three. I’d sprinkle on Allen and Carr, and root for one among them to come back out on high. 

Most Turkey Day speeding yards

David Montgomery +350
Alvin Kamara +350
Mark Ingram +400
Ezekiel Elliott +425
D’Andre Swift +450
Josh Jacobs +550
Tony Pollard +600

I feel Elliott or Swift have a reputable likelihood to win this wager.

Highest scoring group on Thursday

Dallas Cowboys +160
Buffalo Payments +300
Las Vegas Raiders +600
Chicago Bears +700
New Orleans Saints +750
Detroit Lions +1200

As acknowledged above, I am fairly assured within the Payments. I feel they’re getting good worth right here at +300 as nicely. 

Greatest bets

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yards: Over 32.5 (-115). St. Brown is without doubt one of the extra underrated rookies on this class as a result of he performs for a winless group, however he is had at the least 46 yards receiving in every of the final two video games with Goff.

2. Daniel Carlson Over 1.5 made area objectives (+130). Carlson has made at the least two area objectives in 4 out of the previous 5 video games. Harrison Butker made two in opposition to the Cowboys final week and Brandon McManus of the Denver Broncos made three in opposition to Dallas a few weeks in the past. I like that we’re getting plus cash right here.

3. Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-170). It is undoubtedly juicy, however throw it in a same-game parlay if you would like.  

Lottery ticket props

1. David Montgomery to attain two or extra touchdowns (+300). Montgomery rushed for 2 touchdowns the final time he performed Detroit.

2. Ezekiel Elliott first landing scorer (+460). Elliott has had some strong Thanksgiving video games and may very well be in line for one more this yr.

3. Final landing scorer: Josh Allen (+900). Possibly an Allen speeding landing on the very finish of the sport places this one out of attain. 


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