CFB Week 7 DFS Values Report


WIth Missouri/Vandy, LSU/Florida and probably Ole Miss/Arkansas all both postponed or at the least in peril of it, the principle Draft Kings slate is thinner than ordinary. Listed here are a few of the most reasonably priced choices who may present massive returns on funding. 

 

Quarterbacks

 

Worth Performs

 

Jarret Doege – West Virginia – $7,500

It’s gotten to the purpose the place you may primarily trot out a praise of gamers from no matter offense traces up reverse Kansas and do fairly nicely. Their porous protection has allowed 38, 47 and 47 factors to opposing offenses of their first three video games whereas making beforehand unknown freshman quarterbacks Grayson McCall and Shane Illingworth appear to be seasoned execs. 

This week a reasonably competent West Virginia offense that’s averaging 32 factors and 263 passing yards per recreation hosts the Jayhawks. The Mountaineers are coming off a pleasant 27-21 victory over Baylor and can be trying to feast on this tender Kansas secondary. At $7,500, Doege is an appropriate mid-priced, high-floor choice that you could plug-in at Tremendous Flex when you can minimize corners elsewhere.

 

Discount Bin

 

Devin Leary – NC State – $6,300

With the lack of Florida/LSU and the potential postponement of Mississippi/Arkansas, the QB crop is scaling down quickly. Over at NC State, HC Dave Doeren is rebounding from a disappointing 4-8 season with a 3-1 document whereas averaging 34.2 PPG. Florida State switch Bailey Hockman gained the beginning QB job out of camp and led NC State to a dramatic 45-42 opening recreation victory over Wake Forest. Nonetheless of their second recreation in opposition to Virginia Tech, Hockman was ineffective and pulled in favor of 2019 starter Devin Leary who promptly accomplished 12-of-16 passes for 165 yards and a landing. Leary then led back-to-back successful efforts in opposition to Pitt and UVA wherein NC State averaged 34 PPG whereas Leary posted a 6-1 ratio. 

This week the surging Wolfpack face a Duke protection that has misplaced each opening week beginning cornerbacks to harm and has stumbled to a 1-4 document. Leary is within the cut price bin for a cause, as he’s nonetheless not precisely a blue-chip choice but. Nonetheless at a thrifty $6,300 price ticket Leary is defensible contrarian choice. 

 

Tremendous Savers

 

Sam Hartman – Wake Forest – $5,800

It looks like simply yesterday when Sam Hartman was being ranked as a top-20 pre-season CFF quarterback. Then Sage Surratt opted out, Donovan Greene harm his again, Wake Forest began 1-2 and hastily the Demon Deacons fast-paced offensive assault that led the FBS in performs per recreation final 12 months is on the outs. This week Wake will get a Virginia workforce that could be beginning a backup QB that wears a fullback’s quantity and was simply manhandled by NC State final week. 

I believe we see the gun-slinging Wake Forest offense of outdated this week. That they had a recreation in opposition to Notre Dame postponed earlier than throttling Campbell 66-14 to get their offensive groove again somewhat bit. Donovan Greene is again together with Taylor Morin and Jaquari Roberson as a formidable large receiver corps. A Wake Forest stack might be fairly worthwhile whereas chopping prices as Roberson sports activities a $4,700 price ticket whereas Taylor Morin will price you $5,200.

 

Working Backs

 

Worth Performs

 

Tank Bigsby – Auburn – $5,900

Nearly single-handedly Auburn’s five-star freshman prodigy appears to have resurrected the Tiger operating recreation. Whereas operating behind a line of three-star newcomers, Bigsby gained 146 yards on 20 carries for a 7.3 YPC whereas catching 4 passes for 16 yards as Auburn’s newly anointed bell-cow of the current and future. Bigsby routinely discovered additional yards by means of jukes, spins and jump-cuts, as he dodged an absurd 14 tackles whereas racking up a median of 5,0 yards after contact on the day.

Which is why it’s puzzling to me that Bigsby continues to be floating round on the sub-.$6,000 plateau. I’d a lot relatively have him than equally priced Eric Grey and Zonovan Knight who nonetheless need to peel off carries to outstanding backfield-mates. I foresee a slow-paced recreation in opposition to South Carolina the place Bigsby and Kevin Harris face-off in a floor warfare.

 

Discount Bin

 

Rodrigues Clark – Memphis – $5,600

I suppose one of many few good facets of this jigsaw-puzzle-esque season is the large video games are so staggered that the marquee G5 matchups get much more shine from the CFB press than they might have obtained in previous seasons. Living proof is the a lot anticipated showdown between AAC powerhouses UCF and Memphis. This recreation has all the weather of a DFS dream matchup, as every workforce scored over 40 factors per recreation final season with no indicators of slowing down in 2020.

Clearly Memphis is being underpriced, as a result of if Kenneth Gainwell have been nonetheless energetic and taking part in this 12 months, he can be priced nicely into the $8,000+ vary forward of this juicy shootout within the making. Because it stands, Rod Clark is averaging 101 yards per recreation on the bottom in Memphis’ two video games. My hunch is the a number of postponements from Memphis have pushed them on the back-burner relating to recognition of essentially the most prolific collegiate offenses. Take the discounted value right here, however with out the discounted manufacturing.

 

Christopher Rodriguez – Kentucky – $5,100

With Kavosiey Smoke down and out for a couple of video games, the Kentucky backfield scenario has boiled right down to a time-share between Asim Rose and Christopher Rodriguez. The powerfully constructed 5’11” and 224-pound tailback didn’t make an impression in his first recreation in opposition to Auburn; nonetheless, of their Week 2 42-41 OT loss to Ole Miss, Rodriguez got here alive with 17 carries for 133 yards and two touchdowns.

This robust efficiency is the continuation of a development courting again to final season, as CRod scored a landing in every of Kentucky’s final 4 video games of the 2019 season whereas going for at the least 125-plus yards twice in that span. Final week in opposition to Mississippi State Rodriguez break up carries with Rose, dashing seven occasions for 38 yards and the workforce’s lone dashing TD. His backfield competitor Rose carried eight occasions for 22 yards. Rodriguez is clearly out-performing Rose in the meanwhile and will obtain a lift in workload over the subsequent few weeks with Smoke out of motion.

Kentucky’s offense ought to carry out higher offensively in opposition to Tennessee than they did in opposition to MSU. At $5,100 the worth is true to take a shot on Rodriguez within the Wildcats’ run-heavy offense.

 

Tremendous Savers

 

Ricky Individual JR. – NC State – $4,500

Much like his quarterback, Leary, Individual is being disrespected on Draft Kings this week. Every of the previous 2 scoring durations he was a $6,800 funding. Nonetheless after gaining 39 yards final week, he has been exiled to the realm of the Tremendous Savers at $4,500. It’s onerous for me to rationalize the precipitous value drop. Individual Jr. has obtained at the least 13 carries in every recreation this season and scored touchdowns in his earlier two contests the place he averaged 22.5 factors per recreation. He even chipped in two receptions in every of his first two video games. 

The observations about NC State’s offense actually apply to Individual Jr. as nicely. He’s in a 3-man committee, which knocks a few of the luster off of him, however on the $4,500 price the variance is greater than baked in. Final week wasn’t Individual Jr’s flip to place up massive numbers. This week in opposition to Virginia he’s greater than fairly priced for the upside he presents. 

 

Broad Receivers

 

Worth Performs

 

Damonte Coxie – Memphis – $6,100

How a confirmed WR1 who has posted back-to-back 1,100 yard receiving seasons is relegated to the $6,000 vary is past me. For perspective listed here are three large receivers inside $300 of his price ticket:

De’Vion Warren – $6,000 – Arkansas – The Tommy Tutone of this listing, a one-hit-wonder if I ever noticed one. In case you are entertaining Warren as a viable choice as soon as Treylon Burks is again, please cease taking part in DFS. This isn’t the sport for you.

Tre Nixon – UCF – $5,800 – I like Tre Nixon as a lot as the subsequent man, however he hasn’t performed in two video games and is highly-questionable to obtain a full praise of snaps if he does go well with up.

Josh Palmer – Tennessee – $6,500 – Very like his well-known musician father, Robert Palmer of “Merely Irresistible” and “Hooked on Love” fame, Josh Palmer is a strong selection for a yacht rock choice or a season-long CFF format, however with Justin Guarantanamo-Bay helming the offense, there’s a hard-ceiling for Palmer that’s far much less interesting than Coxie. (Facet be aware: No concept if Josh Palmer is Robert Palmer’s son…In actual fact it’s extremely unlikely.)

Coxie is such a no brainer right here that his possession price ought to be substantial. Hop on board the Coxie practice at $6,100 and watch the factors stream like water.

 

Discount Bin

 

Terrell Jana – Virginia – $5,300

UVA likes to throw the ball, because the Cavaliers produced three 100+ goal large receivers in 2019, with Jana being one in all them. The fast strike rhythmic offense of UVA has picked up proper the place they left off final season, as UVA is averaging a staggering 51 passing makes an attempt per recreation in 2020. That mark is within the top-five nationally and it’s the Cavalier receiving corps that’s the direct beneficiary of the excessive passing quantity. 

Final week in opposition to NC State Jana obtained a ridiculous 21 targets, catching 9 for 111 yards within the dropping effort. Jana obtained eight targets in every of UVA’s first two video games, so he’s clearly being prioritized within the passing recreation. He even has a premium matchup in opposition to Wake Forest the place there guarantees to be loads of motion. The one downside is the standing of beginning QB Brennan Armstrong, however regardless of who’s throwing there can be loads of move catching alternatives for Jana. He’s as secure because it will get at $5,300.

 

T.J. Simmons – West Virginia – $4,600

Simmons is the second main returning receiver for the Mountaineers, catching 35 passes for 455 yards, 18.0 YPC and 4 touchdowns because the WVU beginning slot receiver. Nonetheless heading into West Virginia’s opening week, Simmons was suspended for a violation of workforce guidelines. As such Simmons didn’t see the sphere till WVU’s final recreation in opposition to Baylor, catching 4 passes for 82 yards within the 27-21 victory. 

West Virginia WR1 Sam James is listed at $6,900 this week in a really tasty matchup in opposition to the hapless Jayhawks. Nonetheless with Simmons slated to obtain a full array of snaps at slot, he’s simply pretty much as good a guess to achieve the tip zone, at $2,300 much less on the ledger. Take a flier on Simmons when you’re on the lookout for a comparatively secure play on brief cash.

 

Tremendous Savers

 

Noah Grey – Duke – $3,800

It looks like each week a good finish goes berserk. First it was Sean Dykes, then Kyle Pitts racked up 170 yards and three TDs and final week Kenny Yeboah erupted for Ole Miss. Which is why outdated dependable Noah Grey continues to be dwelling within the $3,800 Tremendous Saver basement. The meat and potatoes tight finish posted 11 factors in every of his first three video games earlier than kicking it up a notch Week 5, catching six passes for 51 yards and a landing in a slender 38-31 loss to Virginia Tech.

However final week in opposition to Syracuse, Grey solely caught two passes for 14 yards within the 38-24 win. The hulking tight finish had been priced within the mid-high $4,000 vary the earlier three weeks, however his price ticket cratered with the off recreation in opposition to the Orange on Saturday. I’m betting on a efficiency a lot nearer to the steady-eddie first 4 weeks of the season versus the aberration from final recreation. Take a shot on Grey when you want a bankable double-digits out of your WR3.

 



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